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Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. More specifically, Russian oil exports fell by 115k bpd in July to 7.4m bpd, from about 8m bpd at the start of the year, according to IEA’s August report. However, for the period Jan-Jul22 oil exports averaged 7.75m bpd, edging upwards compared to 7.5m bpd achieved in 2021 as a whole.
Crude and product flows to the US, UK, EU, Japan and Korea have slumped by 2.2 m bpd since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, two-thirds of them have been redirected mainly to China and India at discounted rates. Export revenues fell to $19 bn in July, -9.5% m-o-m, mainly on the back of reduced volumes and lower oil prices. Total flows of Russia’s crude to Asia fell by 500,000 bpd during the past three months, with flows slumping at the lowest since March. During the last week of August, according to Bloomberg, total flows slumped at 3.04m bpd, -16% w-o-w. Crude shipments to China are now about 50% of the total flows, -10% since April. Key driving factor is mainly China’s constrained oil demand due to consecutive lockdowns which prompted refineries to minimize their crude input, as well as simultaneous maintenance of multiple refineries. Another factor could be the narrowing of the price differential between Urals crude and Brent crude, which from about $30/bbl in April-May narrowed to approx. $19/bbl in July-August, according to Russia’s Ministry of Finance.
European imports of Russian crude surged during August’s last week to the highest level since April, mainly driven by the upcoming full effect of sanctions in December. According to Bloomberg, total flows of Urals crude rose to 3.41m bpd from a previous 3.24m bpd, mainly on the back of EU imports (Mediterranean, Northern Europe, and Black Sea region). Imports of Mediterranean countries soared to the highest level to reach 140k bpd, imports of Northern countries accounted for 398k bpd, while import volumes from the Black Sea region (Romania and Bulgaria) marked a 7-week high.
ESPO, on the other hand, has marked a 4-month high during August. ESPO shipments from the country’s Pacific Coast terminals rose to the highest level since April. More specifically, according to Bloomberg, 37 tankers departed from Kozmino in August carrying 875k bpd of ESPO. Meanwhile, combined exports from Kozmino, De Kastri, and Prigorodnoye surged to 942k bpd, +6.5% m-o-m. India edged as a key ESPO importer, displacing barrels from Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi and thus, realigning global crude flows. During August standalone, 6 vessels carrying ESPO headed to the country’s refineries, carrying a total volume of 142k bpd, +20.3% m-o-m.
With shifting trading patterns in the crude oil market, Russia must primarily rely on China and India to source its crude. China’s demand for Russian barrels, albeit lower in July according to GAC data, could recover as we head towards the winter season which will increase demand for oil amid elevated gas prices. Oil demand could be supported in September ahead of the peak of fishing and harvest activities, as well as the Autumn festival, all of which combined add tailwinds to gasoil consumption. In addition, some demand growth is expected during October, ahead of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist party which will be held in Beijing. The recent outbreak of Covid cases in many provinces, though, has forced cities to adopt virus containment measures and added headwinds to the winter demand growth forecast. Nevertheless, market sentiment remains bullish, overall, regarding the 2H2022 Chinese oil demand.
Conclusively, some smaller players have emerged which could potentially absorb more Russian crude in the mid-term, such as Sri Lanka and Egypt which snapped some Russian barrels during July and August, according to Bloomberg. Given that the trade between Russia and alternative importing countries is further developed after the sanctions’ full effect, it could add some support to the tonne miles.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 20 August 22
KOSPO TO IMPORT 240000 MT OF MIN 4400 KCAL/KG NCV STEAM COAL FOR OCTOBER;LOADING FROM RUSSIAN PORTS NOT ALLOWED
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 240,000 MT of min 4,400kcal/kg to max. 4,999 kcal/kg NC ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
INDIAN COMPANIES SWAPPING DOLLAR FOR ASIAN CURRENCIES TO BUY RUSSIAN COAL - REUTERS
Indian companies are using Asian currencies more often to pay for Russian coal imports, according to customs documents and industry sources, avoidi ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
LNG: MAJOR INVESTMENT AND EXPANSION PHASE, DOUBLING OF LIQUEFACTION CAPACITY BY 2028 PROJECTED - CLARKSONS
Clarksons Research have released the latest version of their long standing annual review, LNG Trade & Transport, on to Shipping Intelligence Ne ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
UNAFFORDABLE LNG PRICES UNDERMINE RAPID DEMAND GROWTH FORECASTS IN KEY ASIAN MARKETS - IEEFA
Sustained high prices may accelerate downward pressures on Asian LNG demand, clouding long-term industry outlooks
The global liquefi ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
CHINA'S COAL-RICH SHANXI MAKES STRIDES IN HIGH-QUALITY DEVELOPMENT - XINHUA
Shanxi, a major coal-producing province in north China, has made continuous advances in high-quality development over the past decade, according to ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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