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Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. More specifically, Russian oil exports fell by 115k bpd in July to 7.4m bpd, from about 8m bpd at the start of the year, according to IEA’s August report. However, for the period Jan-Jul22 oil exports averaged 7.75m bpd, edging upwards compared to 7.5m bpd achieved in 2021 as a whole.
Crude and product flows to the US, UK, EU, Japan and Korea have slumped by 2.2 m bpd since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, two-thirds of them have been redirected mainly to China and India at discounted rates. Export revenues fell to $19 bn in July, -9.5% m-o-m, mainly on the back of reduced volumes and lower oil prices. Total flows of Russia’s crude to Asia fell by 500,000 bpd during the past three months, with flows slumping at the lowest since March. During the last week of August, according to Bloomberg, total flows slumped at 3.04m bpd, -16% w-o-w. Crude shipments to China are now about 50% of the total flows, -10% since April. Key driving factor is mainly China’s constrained oil demand due to consecutive lockdowns which prompted refineries to minimize their crude input, as well as simultaneous maintenance of multiple refineries. Another factor could be the narrowing of the price differential between Urals crude and Brent crude, which from about $30/bbl in April-May narrowed to approx. $19/bbl in July-August, according to Russia’s Ministry of Finance.
European imports of Russian crude surged during August’s last week to the highest level since April, mainly driven by the upcoming full effect of sanctions in December. According to Bloomberg, total flows of Urals crude rose to 3.41m bpd from a previous 3.24m bpd, mainly on the back of EU imports (Mediterranean, Northern Europe, and Black Sea region). Imports of Mediterranean countries soared to the highest level to reach 140k bpd, imports of Northern countries accounted for 398k bpd, while import volumes from the Black Sea region (Romania and Bulgaria) marked a 7-week high.
ESPO, on the other hand, has marked a 4-month high during August. ESPO shipments from the country’s Pacific Coast terminals rose to the highest level since April. More specifically, according to Bloomberg, 37 tankers departed from Kozmino in August carrying 875k bpd of ESPO. Meanwhile, combined exports from Kozmino, De Kastri, and Prigorodnoye surged to 942k bpd, +6.5% m-o-m. India edged as a key ESPO importer, displacing barrels from Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi and thus, realigning global crude flows. During August standalone, 6 vessels carrying ESPO headed to the country’s refineries, carrying a total volume of 142k bpd, +20.3% m-o-m.
With shifting trading patterns in the crude oil market, Russia must primarily rely on China and India to source its crude. China’s demand for Russian barrels, albeit lower in July according to GAC data, could recover as we head towards the winter season which will increase demand for oil amid elevated gas prices. Oil demand could be supported in September ahead of the peak of fishing and harvest activities, as well as the Autumn festival, all of which combined add tailwinds to gasoil consumption. In addition, some demand growth is expected during October, ahead of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist party which will be held in Beijing. The recent outbreak of Covid cases in many provinces, though, has forced cities to adopt virus containment measures and added headwinds to the winter demand growth forecast. Nevertheless, market sentiment remains bullish, overall, regarding the 2H2022 Chinese oil demand.
Conclusively, some smaller players have emerged which could potentially absorb more Russian crude in the mid-term, such as Sri Lanka and Egypt which snapped some Russian barrels during July and August, according to Bloomberg. Given that the trade between Russia and alternative importing countries is further developed after the sanctions’ full effect, it could add some support to the tonne miles.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 06 August 22
SUMITOMO Q1 PROFIT RISES 45% ON STRONGER PRICES OF COAL, NICKEL - REUTERS
Japanese trading house Sumitomo Corp 8053.T said on Wednesday its net profit for the April-June quarter rose 45% to a record thanks to higher price ...
Saturday, 06 August 22
GERMANY'S ENERGY U-TURN: COAL INSTEAD OF GAS - DEUTSCHE WELLE
Berlin has realized it will never again import as much energy from Russia as before the Ukraine war. So the challenge is to wean Germany off its de ...
Saturday, 30 July 22
NUANCES OF FORCE MAJEURE CLAUSE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Knowledge to Elevate
In NKD Maritime Limited v. Bart Maritime (No 2) Inc (Shagang Giant) [2022] EWHC 1615 (Comm), Bart Maritime (No 2) Inc (th ...
Saturday, 30 July 22
AEMO URGES QUICKER SHIFT TO RENEWABLES AMID COAL FAILURES AND SOARING FOSSIL FUEL COSTS
The Australian Energy Market Operator has called for an accelerated shift to wind and solar, backed up by batteries and other storage, as a devasta ...
Friday, 29 July 22
GLENCORE TO SUPPLY COAL TO NIPPON STEEL AT $375 PER TON - BLOOMBERG
Glencore Plc, agreed to supply coal to Nippon Steel at one of the highest prices ever paid by the Japan Bloomberg reported on July 27.
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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