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Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. More specifically, Russian oil exports fell by 115k bpd in July to 7.4m bpd, from about 8m bpd at the start of the year, according to IEA’s August report. However, for the period Jan-Jul22 oil exports averaged 7.75m bpd, edging upwards compared to 7.5m bpd achieved in 2021 as a whole.
Crude and product flows to the US, UK, EU, Japan and Korea have slumped by 2.2 m bpd since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, two-thirds of them have been redirected mainly to China and India at discounted rates. Export revenues fell to $19 bn in July, -9.5% m-o-m, mainly on the back of reduced volumes and lower oil prices. Total flows of Russia’s crude to Asia fell by 500,000 bpd during the past three months, with flows slumping at the lowest since March. During the last week of August, according to Bloomberg, total flows slumped at 3.04m bpd, -16% w-o-w. Crude shipments to China are now about 50% of the total flows, -10% since April. Key driving factor is mainly China’s constrained oil demand due to consecutive lockdowns which prompted refineries to minimize their crude input, as well as simultaneous maintenance of multiple refineries. Another factor could be the narrowing of the price differential between Urals crude and Brent crude, which from about $30/bbl in April-May narrowed to approx. $19/bbl in July-August, according to Russia’s Ministry of Finance.
European imports of Russian crude surged during August’s last week to the highest level since April, mainly driven by the upcoming full effect of sanctions in December. According to Bloomberg, total flows of Urals crude rose to 3.41m bpd from a previous 3.24m bpd, mainly on the back of EU imports (Mediterranean, Northern Europe, and Black Sea region). Imports of Mediterranean countries soared to the highest level to reach 140k bpd, imports of Northern countries accounted for 398k bpd, while import volumes from the Black Sea region (Romania and Bulgaria) marked a 7-week high.
ESPO, on the other hand, has marked a 4-month high during August. ESPO shipments from the country’s Pacific Coast terminals rose to the highest level since April. More specifically, according to Bloomberg, 37 tankers departed from Kozmino in August carrying 875k bpd of ESPO. Meanwhile, combined exports from Kozmino, De Kastri, and Prigorodnoye surged to 942k bpd, +6.5% m-o-m. India edged as a key ESPO importer, displacing barrels from Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi and thus, realigning global crude flows. During August standalone, 6 vessels carrying ESPO headed to the country’s refineries, carrying a total volume of 142k bpd, +20.3% m-o-m.
With shifting trading patterns in the crude oil market, Russia must primarily rely on China and India to source its crude. China’s demand for Russian barrels, albeit lower in July according to GAC data, could recover as we head towards the winter season which will increase demand for oil amid elevated gas prices. Oil demand could be supported in September ahead of the peak of fishing and harvest activities, as well as the Autumn festival, all of which combined add tailwinds to gasoil consumption. In addition, some demand growth is expected during October, ahead of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist party which will be held in Beijing. The recent outbreak of Covid cases in many provinces, though, has forced cities to adopt virus containment measures and added headwinds to the winter demand growth forecast. Nevertheless, market sentiment remains bullish, overall, regarding the 2H2022 Chinese oil demand.
Conclusively, some smaller players have emerged which could potentially absorb more Russian crude in the mid-term, such as Sri Lanka and Egypt which snapped some Russian barrels during July and August, according to Bloomberg. Given that the trade between Russia and alternative importing countries is further developed after the sanctions’ full effect, it could add some support to the tonne miles.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 August 22
SHIPPING: GLOBAL TAX REFORM - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
OECD rules designed to implement a global minimum corporate tax rate for very large multinational groups have now been published and are expected t ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
PARTIES CONCLUDE JOINT R&D AGREEMENT FOR WORLD’S FIRST AMMONIA FLOATING STORAGE AND REGASIFICATION BARGE CONTRIBUTING TO PROMOTING THE EARLY INTRODUCTION OF AMMONIA FUEL - NYK
NYK Line, Nihon Shipyard Co., Ltd. (NSY), ClassNK, and IHI Corporation (IHI) signed a joint research and development agreement for the commercializ ...
Monday, 22 August 22
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT IMPOSED ON NEW PROGRESSIVE ROYALTIES FOR COAL
Indonesian President Joko Widodo has signed a Government Regulation (Number 26 of 2022) on 15 August 2022 related to the progressive royalty rates ...
Monday, 22 August 22
CHINA'S JULY RUSSIAN COAL IMPORTS HIT 5-YR HIGH AS WEST SHUNS MOSCOW - REUTERS
China’s coal imports from Russia jumped 14% in July from a year earlier to their highest in at least five years, as China bought discounted c ...
Sunday, 21 August 22
COAL-RICH POLAND FACES WINTER OF ENERGY DISCONTENT - DW
Poland uses 10 million tons of coal a year to heat households — a whopping 87% of all coal consumed in EU homes in 2019, according to the War ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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