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Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. More specifically, Russian oil exports fell by 115k bpd in July to 7.4m bpd, from about 8m bpd at the start of the year, according to IEA’s August report. However, for the period Jan-Jul22 oil exports averaged 7.75m bpd, edging upwards compared to 7.5m bpd achieved in 2021 as a whole.
Crude and product flows to the US, UK, EU, Japan and Korea have slumped by 2.2 m bpd since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, two-thirds of them have been redirected mainly to China and India at discounted rates. Export revenues fell to $19 bn in July, -9.5% m-o-m, mainly on the back of reduced volumes and lower oil prices. Total flows of Russia’s crude to Asia fell by 500,000 bpd during the past three months, with flows slumping at the lowest since March. During the last week of August, according to Bloomberg, total flows slumped at 3.04m bpd, -16% w-o-w. Crude shipments to China are now about 50% of the total flows, -10% since April. Key driving factor is mainly China’s constrained oil demand due to consecutive lockdowns which prompted refineries to minimize their crude input, as well as simultaneous maintenance of multiple refineries. Another factor could be the narrowing of the price differential between Urals crude and Brent crude, which from about $30/bbl in April-May narrowed to approx. $19/bbl in July-August, according to Russia’s Ministry of Finance.
European imports of Russian crude surged during August’s last week to the highest level since April, mainly driven by the upcoming full effect of sanctions in December. According to Bloomberg, total flows of Urals crude rose to 3.41m bpd from a previous 3.24m bpd, mainly on the back of EU imports (Mediterranean, Northern Europe, and Black Sea region). Imports of Mediterranean countries soared to the highest level to reach 140k bpd, imports of Northern countries accounted for 398k bpd, while import volumes from the Black Sea region (Romania and Bulgaria) marked a 7-week high.
ESPO, on the other hand, has marked a 4-month high during August. ESPO shipments from the country’s Pacific Coast terminals rose to the highest level since April. More specifically, according to Bloomberg, 37 tankers departed from Kozmino in August carrying 875k bpd of ESPO. Meanwhile, combined exports from Kozmino, De Kastri, and Prigorodnoye surged to 942k bpd, +6.5% m-o-m. India edged as a key ESPO importer, displacing barrels from Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi and thus, realigning global crude flows. During August standalone, 6 vessels carrying ESPO headed to the country’s refineries, carrying a total volume of 142k bpd, +20.3% m-o-m.
With shifting trading patterns in the crude oil market, Russia must primarily rely on China and India to source its crude. China’s demand for Russian barrels, albeit lower in July according to GAC data, could recover as we head towards the winter season which will increase demand for oil amid elevated gas prices. Oil demand could be supported in September ahead of the peak of fishing and harvest activities, as well as the Autumn festival, all of which combined add tailwinds to gasoil consumption. In addition, some demand growth is expected during October, ahead of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist party which will be held in Beijing. The recent outbreak of Covid cases in many provinces, though, has forced cities to adopt virus containment measures and added headwinds to the winter demand growth forecast. Nevertheless, market sentiment remains bullish, overall, regarding the 2H2022 Chinese oil demand.
Conclusively, some smaller players have emerged which could potentially absorb more Russian crude in the mid-term, such as Sri Lanka and Egypt which snapped some Russian barrels during July and August, according to Bloomberg. Given that the trade between Russia and alternative importing countries is further developed after the sanctions’ full effect, it could add some support to the tonne miles.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 29 July 22
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND IS SET TO RETURN TO ITS ALL-TIME HIGH IN 2022 - IEA
The world’s consumption of coal is set to rise slightly in 2022, taking it back to the record level it reached nearly a decade ago, according ...
Thursday, 28 July 22
CREW FAMILIARISATION IS CRITICAL WHEN TAKING OVER A VESSEL - WEST P&I CLUB
Knowledge to Elevate
When a vessel changes ownership and/or manager, it can take some considerable time before the new crew and mana ...
Thursday, 28 July 22
RETURN OF COAL A THREAT TO EUROPEAN COMPANIES' ESG RATINGS - REUTERS
European companies turning to coal as an alternative to Russian gas face a hit to their environmental, social and governance ratings, leaving them ...
Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal import ...
Tuesday, 26 July 22
CAP RUSSIA'S OIL PRICE NOW - PROJECT SYNDICATE
Though the price of oil has declined in recent weeks, it is still through the roof, filtering through to gasoline prices, and causing economic and ...
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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