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Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. More specifically, Russian oil exports fell by 115k bpd in July to 7.4m bpd, from about 8m bpd at the start of the year, according to IEA’s August report. However, for the period Jan-Jul22 oil exports averaged 7.75m bpd, edging upwards compared to 7.5m bpd achieved in 2021 as a whole.
Crude and product flows to the US, UK, EU, Japan and Korea have slumped by 2.2 m bpd since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, two-thirds of them have been redirected mainly to China and India at discounted rates. Export revenues fell to $19 bn in July, -9.5% m-o-m, mainly on the back of reduced volumes and lower oil prices. Total flows of Russia’s crude to Asia fell by 500,000 bpd during the past three months, with flows slumping at the lowest since March. During the last week of August, according to Bloomberg, total flows slumped at 3.04m bpd, -16% w-o-w. Crude shipments to China are now about 50% of the total flows, -10% since April. Key driving factor is mainly China’s constrained oil demand due to consecutive lockdowns which prompted refineries to minimize their crude input, as well as simultaneous maintenance of multiple refineries. Another factor could be the narrowing of the price differential between Urals crude and Brent crude, which from about $30/bbl in April-May narrowed to approx. $19/bbl in July-August, according to Russia’s Ministry of Finance.
European imports of Russian crude surged during August’s last week to the highest level since April, mainly driven by the upcoming full effect of sanctions in December. According to Bloomberg, total flows of Urals crude rose to 3.41m bpd from a previous 3.24m bpd, mainly on the back of EU imports (Mediterranean, Northern Europe, and Black Sea region). Imports of Mediterranean countries soared to the highest level to reach 140k bpd, imports of Northern countries accounted for 398k bpd, while import volumes from the Black Sea region (Romania and Bulgaria) marked a 7-week high.
ESPO, on the other hand, has marked a 4-month high during August. ESPO shipments from the country’s Pacific Coast terminals rose to the highest level since April. More specifically, according to Bloomberg, 37 tankers departed from Kozmino in August carrying 875k bpd of ESPO. Meanwhile, combined exports from Kozmino, De Kastri, and Prigorodnoye surged to 942k bpd, +6.5% m-o-m. India edged as a key ESPO importer, displacing barrels from Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi and thus, realigning global crude flows. During August standalone, 6 vessels carrying ESPO headed to the country’s refineries, carrying a total volume of 142k bpd, +20.3% m-o-m.
With shifting trading patterns in the crude oil market, Russia must primarily rely on China and India to source its crude. China’s demand for Russian barrels, albeit lower in July according to GAC data, could recover as we head towards the winter season which will increase demand for oil amid elevated gas prices. Oil demand could be supported in September ahead of the peak of fishing and harvest activities, as well as the Autumn festival, all of which combined add tailwinds to gasoil consumption. In addition, some demand growth is expected during October, ahead of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist party which will be held in Beijing. The recent outbreak of Covid cases in many provinces, though, has forced cities to adopt virus containment measures and added headwinds to the winter demand growth forecast. Nevertheless, market sentiment remains bullish, overall, regarding the 2H2022 Chinese oil demand.
Conclusively, some smaller players have emerged which could potentially absorb more Russian crude in the mid-term, such as Sri Lanka and Egypt which snapped some Russian barrels during July and August, according to Bloomberg. Given that the trade between Russia and alternative importing countries is further developed after the sanctions’ full effect, it could add some support to the tonne miles.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 September 22
ABM INVESTAMA BUYS 30% GEMS SHARES FOR US$ 420 MILLION
PT ABM Investama Tbk through its indirect subsidiary, bought a 30% stake in the PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk for US$ 420 million or around Rp 6.2 tri ...
Wednesday, 31 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Scorching temperatures and extremely dry conditions during the Northern hemisphere summer have been drying crops. Yield prospects have subsided in ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
HIGH COAL PRICES COULD BOOST INDONESIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Global coal prices have reached an all-time high as countries stop purchasing Russian coal amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Indonesian coal comp ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
A COMBINED US$6.8-BILLION CASH BALANCE OF INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES COULD PROVIDE FOR TIMELY INVESTMENTS IN GREEN TRANSITION - IEEFA
A combined US$6.8-billion cash balance of Indonesian coal companies could provide for timely investments in green transition
The opp ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
SHIPPING INDUSTRY TO REMOVE THE INDIAN OCEAN HIGH RISK AREA - BIMCO
After more than a decade of effective threat-reducing counter-piracy operations the shipping industry has removed the ‘Indian Ocean High Risk ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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