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Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. More specifically, Russian oil exports fell by 115k bpd in July to 7.4m bpd, from about 8m bpd at the start of the year, according to IEA’s August report. However, for the period Jan-Jul22 oil exports averaged 7.75m bpd, edging upwards compared to 7.5m bpd achieved in 2021 as a whole.
Crude and product flows to the US, UK, EU, Japan and Korea have slumped by 2.2 m bpd since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, two-thirds of them have been redirected mainly to China and India at discounted rates. Export revenues fell to $19 bn in July, -9.5% m-o-m, mainly on the back of reduced volumes and lower oil prices. Total flows of Russia’s crude to Asia fell by 500,000 bpd during the past three months, with flows slumping at the lowest since March. During the last week of August, according to Bloomberg, total flows slumped at 3.04m bpd, -16% w-o-w. Crude shipments to China are now about 50% of the total flows, -10% since April. Key driving factor is mainly China’s constrained oil demand due to consecutive lockdowns which prompted refineries to minimize their crude input, as well as simultaneous maintenance of multiple refineries. Another factor could be the narrowing of the price differential between Urals crude and Brent crude, which from about $30/bbl in April-May narrowed to approx. $19/bbl in July-August, according to Russia’s Ministry of Finance.
European imports of Russian crude surged during August’s last week to the highest level since April, mainly driven by the upcoming full effect of sanctions in December. According to Bloomberg, total flows of Urals crude rose to 3.41m bpd from a previous 3.24m bpd, mainly on the back of EU imports (Mediterranean, Northern Europe, and Black Sea region). Imports of Mediterranean countries soared to the highest level to reach 140k bpd, imports of Northern countries accounted for 398k bpd, while import volumes from the Black Sea region (Romania and Bulgaria) marked a 7-week high.
ESPO, on the other hand, has marked a 4-month high during August. ESPO shipments from the country’s Pacific Coast terminals rose to the highest level since April. More specifically, according to Bloomberg, 37 tankers departed from Kozmino in August carrying 875k bpd of ESPO. Meanwhile, combined exports from Kozmino, De Kastri, and Prigorodnoye surged to 942k bpd, +6.5% m-o-m. India edged as a key ESPO importer, displacing barrels from Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi and thus, realigning global crude flows. During August standalone, 6 vessels carrying ESPO headed to the country’s refineries, carrying a total volume of 142k bpd, +20.3% m-o-m.
With shifting trading patterns in the crude oil market, Russia must primarily rely on China and India to source its crude. China’s demand for Russian barrels, albeit lower in July according to GAC data, could recover as we head towards the winter season which will increase demand for oil amid elevated gas prices. Oil demand could be supported in September ahead of the peak of fishing and harvest activities, as well as the Autumn festival, all of which combined add tailwinds to gasoil consumption. In addition, some demand growth is expected during October, ahead of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist party which will be held in Beijing. The recent outbreak of Covid cases in many provinces, though, has forced cities to adopt virus containment measures and added headwinds to the winter demand growth forecast. Nevertheless, market sentiment remains bullish, overall, regarding the 2H2022 Chinese oil demand.
Conclusively, some smaller players have emerged which could potentially absorb more Russian crude in the mid-term, such as Sri Lanka and Egypt which snapped some Russian barrels during July and August, according to Bloomberg. Given that the trade between Russia and alternative importing countries is further developed after the sanctions’ full effect, it could add some support to the tonne miles.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 September 22
ABM INVESTAMA BUYS 30% GEMS SHARES FOR US$ 420 MILLION
PT ABM Investama Tbk through its indirect subsidiary, bought a 30% stake in the PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk for US$ 420 million or around Rp 6.2 tri ...
Wednesday, 31 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Scorching temperatures and extremely dry conditions during the Northern hemisphere summer have been drying crops. Yield prospects have subsided in ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
HIGH COAL PRICES COULD BOOST INDONESIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Global coal prices have reached an all-time high as countries stop purchasing Russian coal amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Indonesian coal comp ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
A COMBINED US$6.8-BILLION CASH BALANCE OF INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES COULD PROVIDE FOR TIMELY INVESTMENTS IN GREEN TRANSITION - IEEFA
A combined US$6.8-billion cash balance of Indonesian coal companies could provide for timely investments in green transition
The opp ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
SHIPPING INDUSTRY TO REMOVE THE INDIAN OCEAN HIGH RISK AREA - BIMCO
After more than a decade of effective threat-reducing counter-piracy operations the shipping industry has removed the ‘Indian Ocean High Risk ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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