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Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. More specifically, Russian oil exports fell by 115k bpd in July to 7.4m bpd, from about 8m bpd at the start of the year, according to IEA’s August report. However, for the period Jan-Jul22 oil exports averaged 7.75m bpd, edging upwards compared to 7.5m bpd achieved in 2021 as a whole.
Crude and product flows to the US, UK, EU, Japan and Korea have slumped by 2.2 m bpd since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, two-thirds of them have been redirected mainly to China and India at discounted rates. Export revenues fell to $19 bn in July, -9.5% m-o-m, mainly on the back of reduced volumes and lower oil prices. Total flows of Russia’s crude to Asia fell by 500,000 bpd during the past three months, with flows slumping at the lowest since March. During the last week of August, according to Bloomberg, total flows slumped at 3.04m bpd, -16% w-o-w. Crude shipments to China are now about 50% of the total flows, -10% since April. Key driving factor is mainly China’s constrained oil demand due to consecutive lockdowns which prompted refineries to minimize their crude input, as well as simultaneous maintenance of multiple refineries. Another factor could be the narrowing of the price differential between Urals crude and Brent crude, which from about $30/bbl in April-May narrowed to approx. $19/bbl in July-August, according to Russia’s Ministry of Finance.
European imports of Russian crude surged during August’s last week to the highest level since April, mainly driven by the upcoming full effect of sanctions in December. According to Bloomberg, total flows of Urals crude rose to 3.41m bpd from a previous 3.24m bpd, mainly on the back of EU imports (Mediterranean, Northern Europe, and Black Sea region). Imports of Mediterranean countries soared to the highest level to reach 140k bpd, imports of Northern countries accounted for 398k bpd, while import volumes from the Black Sea region (Romania and Bulgaria) marked a 7-week high.
ESPO, on the other hand, has marked a 4-month high during August. ESPO shipments from the country’s Pacific Coast terminals rose to the highest level since April. More specifically, according to Bloomberg, 37 tankers departed from Kozmino in August carrying 875k bpd of ESPO. Meanwhile, combined exports from Kozmino, De Kastri, and Prigorodnoye surged to 942k bpd, +6.5% m-o-m. India edged as a key ESPO importer, displacing barrels from Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi and thus, realigning global crude flows. During August standalone, 6 vessels carrying ESPO headed to the country’s refineries, carrying a total volume of 142k bpd, +20.3% m-o-m.
With shifting trading patterns in the crude oil market, Russia must primarily rely on China and India to source its crude. China’s demand for Russian barrels, albeit lower in July according to GAC data, could recover as we head towards the winter season which will increase demand for oil amid elevated gas prices. Oil demand could be supported in September ahead of the peak of fishing and harvest activities, as well as the Autumn festival, all of which combined add tailwinds to gasoil consumption. In addition, some demand growth is expected during October, ahead of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist party which will be held in Beijing. The recent outbreak of Covid cases in many provinces, though, has forced cities to adopt virus containment measures and added headwinds to the winter demand growth forecast. Nevertheless, market sentiment remains bullish, overall, regarding the 2H2022 Chinese oil demand.
Conclusively, some smaller players have emerged which could potentially absorb more Russian crude in the mid-term, such as Sri Lanka and Egypt which snapped some Russian barrels during July and August, according to Bloomberg. Given that the trade between Russia and alternative importing countries is further developed after the sanctions’ full effect, it could add some support to the tonne miles.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 12 September 22
COAL PRICE HIKE REMAINS DIFFICULT FOR CIL: CHAIRMAN TELLS ANALYSTS - PTI
Coal India on Thursday informed investors that increasing coal prices remains difficult in the current context when the economy is grappling with h ...
Friday, 09 September 22
GREECE WILL KEEP COAL-FIRED PLANTS RUNNING FOR LONGER AMID GAS CRISIS - REUTERS
Greece will keep seven coal-fired plants running for longer than previously planned as European countries adjust to a cut in gas flows coming from ...
Friday, 09 September 22
CHINA'S DROUGHT INTENSIFIES GLOBAL COAL SHORTAGE - REUTERS
China’s drought has sent coal prices surging as traders anticipate the lack of hydroelectric generation will force it to burn more coal to me ...
Thursday, 08 September 22
MOODY.S AFFIRMS ABM INVESTAMA'S B1 RATINGS FOLLOWING PLANNED MINORITY INVESTMENT IN COAL MINER; OUTLOOK STABLE
Moody's Investors Service has affirmed ABM Investama Tbk (P.T.)'s B1 corporate family rating (CFR), along with the B1 rating on its senior ...
Friday, 02 September 22
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIPS SLIGHTLY IN SEPTEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for September delivery drops 0.74 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price R ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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