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Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. More specifically, Russian oil exports fell by 115k bpd in July to 7.4m bpd, from about 8m bpd at the start of the year, according to IEA’s August report. However, for the period Jan-Jul22 oil exports averaged 7.75m bpd, edging upwards compared to 7.5m bpd achieved in 2021 as a whole.
Crude and product flows to the US, UK, EU, Japan and Korea have slumped by 2.2 m bpd since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, two-thirds of them have been redirected mainly to China and India at discounted rates. Export revenues fell to $19 bn in July, -9.5% m-o-m, mainly on the back of reduced volumes and lower oil prices. Total flows of Russia’s crude to Asia fell by 500,000 bpd during the past three months, with flows slumping at the lowest since March. During the last week of August, according to Bloomberg, total flows slumped at 3.04m bpd, -16% w-o-w. Crude shipments to China are now about 50% of the total flows, -10% since April. Key driving factor is mainly China’s constrained oil demand due to consecutive lockdowns which prompted refineries to minimize their crude input, as well as simultaneous maintenance of multiple refineries. Another factor could be the narrowing of the price differential between Urals crude and Brent crude, which from about $30/bbl in April-May narrowed to approx. $19/bbl in July-August, according to Russia’s Ministry of Finance.
European imports of Russian crude surged during August’s last week to the highest level since April, mainly driven by the upcoming full effect of sanctions in December. According to Bloomberg, total flows of Urals crude rose to 3.41m bpd from a previous 3.24m bpd, mainly on the back of EU imports (Mediterranean, Northern Europe, and Black Sea region). Imports of Mediterranean countries soared to the highest level to reach 140k bpd, imports of Northern countries accounted for 398k bpd, while import volumes from the Black Sea region (Romania and Bulgaria) marked a 7-week high.
ESPO, on the other hand, has marked a 4-month high during August. ESPO shipments from the country’s Pacific Coast terminals rose to the highest level since April. More specifically, according to Bloomberg, 37 tankers departed from Kozmino in August carrying 875k bpd of ESPO. Meanwhile, combined exports from Kozmino, De Kastri, and Prigorodnoye surged to 942k bpd, +6.5% m-o-m. India edged as a key ESPO importer, displacing barrels from Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi and thus, realigning global crude flows. During August standalone, 6 vessels carrying ESPO headed to the country’s refineries, carrying a total volume of 142k bpd, +20.3% m-o-m.
With shifting trading patterns in the crude oil market, Russia must primarily rely on China and India to source its crude. China’s demand for Russian barrels, albeit lower in July according to GAC data, could recover as we head towards the winter season which will increase demand for oil amid elevated gas prices. Oil demand could be supported in September ahead of the peak of fishing and harvest activities, as well as the Autumn festival, all of which combined add tailwinds to gasoil consumption. In addition, some demand growth is expected during October, ahead of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist party which will be held in Beijing. The recent outbreak of Covid cases in many provinces, though, has forced cities to adopt virus containment measures and added headwinds to the winter demand growth forecast. Nevertheless, market sentiment remains bullish, overall, regarding the 2H2022 Chinese oil demand.
Conclusively, some smaller players have emerged which could potentially absorb more Russian crude in the mid-term, such as Sri Lanka and Egypt which snapped some Russian barrels during July and August, according to Bloomberg. Given that the trade between Russia and alternative importing countries is further developed after the sanctions’ full effect, it could add some support to the tonne miles.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 12 September 22
COAL PRICE HIKE REMAINS DIFFICULT FOR CIL: CHAIRMAN TELLS ANALYSTS - PTI
Coal India on Thursday informed investors that increasing coal prices remains difficult in the current context when the economy is grappling with h ...
Friday, 09 September 22
GREECE WILL KEEP COAL-FIRED PLANTS RUNNING FOR LONGER AMID GAS CRISIS - REUTERS
Greece will keep seven coal-fired plants running for longer than previously planned as European countries adjust to a cut in gas flows coming from ...
Friday, 09 September 22
CHINA'S DROUGHT INTENSIFIES GLOBAL COAL SHORTAGE - REUTERS
China’s drought has sent coal prices surging as traders anticipate the lack of hydroelectric generation will force it to burn more coal to me ...
Thursday, 08 September 22
MOODY.S AFFIRMS ABM INVESTAMA'S B1 RATINGS FOLLOWING PLANNED MINORITY INVESTMENT IN COAL MINER; OUTLOOK STABLE
Moody's Investors Service has affirmed ABM Investama Tbk (P.T.)'s B1 corporate family rating (CFR), along with the B1 rating on its senior ...
Friday, 02 September 22
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIPS SLIGHTLY IN SEPTEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for September delivery drops 0.74 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price R ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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