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Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. More specifically, Russian oil exports fell by 115k bpd in July to 7.4m bpd, from about 8m bpd at the start of the year, according to IEA’s August report. However, for the period Jan-Jul22 oil exports averaged 7.75m bpd, edging upwards compared to 7.5m bpd achieved in 2021 as a whole.
Crude and product flows to the US, UK, EU, Japan and Korea have slumped by 2.2 m bpd since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, two-thirds of them have been redirected mainly to China and India at discounted rates. Export revenues fell to $19 bn in July, -9.5% m-o-m, mainly on the back of reduced volumes and lower oil prices. Total flows of Russia’s crude to Asia fell by 500,000 bpd during the past three months, with flows slumping at the lowest since March. During the last week of August, according to Bloomberg, total flows slumped at 3.04m bpd, -16% w-o-w. Crude shipments to China are now about 50% of the total flows, -10% since April. Key driving factor is mainly China’s constrained oil demand due to consecutive lockdowns which prompted refineries to minimize their crude input, as well as simultaneous maintenance of multiple refineries. Another factor could be the narrowing of the price differential between Urals crude and Brent crude, which from about $30/bbl in April-May narrowed to approx. $19/bbl in July-August, according to Russia’s Ministry of Finance.
European imports of Russian crude surged during August’s last week to the highest level since April, mainly driven by the upcoming full effect of sanctions in December. According to Bloomberg, total flows of Urals crude rose to 3.41m bpd from a previous 3.24m bpd, mainly on the back of EU imports (Mediterranean, Northern Europe, and Black Sea region). Imports of Mediterranean countries soared to the highest level to reach 140k bpd, imports of Northern countries accounted for 398k bpd, while import volumes from the Black Sea region (Romania and Bulgaria) marked a 7-week high.
ESPO, on the other hand, has marked a 4-month high during August. ESPO shipments from the country’s Pacific Coast terminals rose to the highest level since April. More specifically, according to Bloomberg, 37 tankers departed from Kozmino in August carrying 875k bpd of ESPO. Meanwhile, combined exports from Kozmino, De Kastri, and Prigorodnoye surged to 942k bpd, +6.5% m-o-m. India edged as a key ESPO importer, displacing barrels from Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi and thus, realigning global crude flows. During August standalone, 6 vessels carrying ESPO headed to the country’s refineries, carrying a total volume of 142k bpd, +20.3% m-o-m.
With shifting trading patterns in the crude oil market, Russia must primarily rely on China and India to source its crude. China’s demand for Russian barrels, albeit lower in July according to GAC data, could recover as we head towards the winter season which will increase demand for oil amid elevated gas prices. Oil demand could be supported in September ahead of the peak of fishing and harvest activities, as well as the Autumn festival, all of which combined add tailwinds to gasoil consumption. In addition, some demand growth is expected during October, ahead of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist party which will be held in Beijing. The recent outbreak of Covid cases in many provinces, though, has forced cities to adopt virus containment measures and added headwinds to the winter demand growth forecast. Nevertheless, market sentiment remains bullish, overall, regarding the 2H2022 Chinese oil demand.
Conclusively, some smaller players have emerged which could potentially absorb more Russian crude in the mid-term, such as Sri Lanka and Egypt which snapped some Russian barrels during July and August, according to Bloomberg. Given that the trade between Russia and alternative importing countries is further developed after the sanctions’ full effect, it could add some support to the tonne miles.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 04 October 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SURGE AGAIN TO RECORD HIGH
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference reached another record high in October as Russia's war in Ukraine continues to spark a surge in c ...
Sunday, 02 October 22
MISC STRENGTHENS ITS PARTNERSHIP WITH SEARIVER MARITIME
MISC Berhad (MISC) today announced that its subsidiaries Polaris LNG Three Pte. Ltd. and Polaris LNG Four Pte. Ltd. have secured long-term time cha ...
Thursday, 29 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
This week, focus turns to the 38th APPEC Conference, where leading professionals from the global oil industry will discuss the future key drivers o ...
Thursday, 29 September 22
HIGH COAL PRICES REMAIN A CONCERN FOR DOMESTIC NON-FERROUS METAL COMPANIES - ICRA
According to ICRA on Monday, the high price of coal will have a negative effect on the profitability of domestic non-ferrous metal companies that m ...
Tuesday, 27 September 22
14% INCREASE IN EUROPEAN COAL DEMAND TO BE SHORT-TERM TREND - WOOD MACKENZIE
European seaborne thermal coal demand is projected to increase 14% or 12 million metric tonnes (Mt) this year to 98 Mt as it grapples with the curr ...
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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