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Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. More specifically, Russian oil exports fell by 115k bpd in July to 7.4m bpd, from about 8m bpd at the start of the year, according to IEA’s August report. However, for the period Jan-Jul22 oil exports averaged 7.75m bpd, edging upwards compared to 7.5m bpd achieved in 2021 as a whole.
Crude and product flows to the US, UK, EU, Japan and Korea have slumped by 2.2 m bpd since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, two-thirds of them have been redirected mainly to China and India at discounted rates. Export revenues fell to $19 bn in July, -9.5% m-o-m, mainly on the back of reduced volumes and lower oil prices. Total flows of Russia’s crude to Asia fell by 500,000 bpd during the past three months, with flows slumping at the lowest since March. During the last week of August, according to Bloomberg, total flows slumped at 3.04m bpd, -16% w-o-w. Crude shipments to China are now about 50% of the total flows, -10% since April. Key driving factor is mainly China’s constrained oil demand due to consecutive lockdowns which prompted refineries to minimize their crude input, as well as simultaneous maintenance of multiple refineries. Another factor could be the narrowing of the price differential between Urals crude and Brent crude, which from about $30/bbl in April-May narrowed to approx. $19/bbl in July-August, according to Russia’s Ministry of Finance.
European imports of Russian crude surged during August’s last week to the highest level since April, mainly driven by the upcoming full effect of sanctions in December. According to Bloomberg, total flows of Urals crude rose to 3.41m bpd from a previous 3.24m bpd, mainly on the back of EU imports (Mediterranean, Northern Europe, and Black Sea region). Imports of Mediterranean countries soared to the highest level to reach 140k bpd, imports of Northern countries accounted for 398k bpd, while import volumes from the Black Sea region (Romania and Bulgaria) marked a 7-week high.
ESPO, on the other hand, has marked a 4-month high during August. ESPO shipments from the country’s Pacific Coast terminals rose to the highest level since April. More specifically, according to Bloomberg, 37 tankers departed from Kozmino in August carrying 875k bpd of ESPO. Meanwhile, combined exports from Kozmino, De Kastri, and Prigorodnoye surged to 942k bpd, +6.5% m-o-m. India edged as a key ESPO importer, displacing barrels from Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi and thus, realigning global crude flows. During August standalone, 6 vessels carrying ESPO headed to the country’s refineries, carrying a total volume of 142k bpd, +20.3% m-o-m.
With shifting trading patterns in the crude oil market, Russia must primarily rely on China and India to source its crude. China’s demand for Russian barrels, albeit lower in July according to GAC data, could recover as we head towards the winter season which will increase demand for oil amid elevated gas prices. Oil demand could be supported in September ahead of the peak of fishing and harvest activities, as well as the Autumn festival, all of which combined add tailwinds to gasoil consumption. In addition, some demand growth is expected during October, ahead of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist party which will be held in Beijing. The recent outbreak of Covid cases in many provinces, though, has forced cities to adopt virus containment measures and added headwinds to the winter demand growth forecast. Nevertheless, market sentiment remains bullish, overall, regarding the 2H2022 Chinese oil demand.
Conclusively, some smaller players have emerged which could potentially absorb more Russian crude in the mid-term, such as Sri Lanka and Egypt which snapped some Russian barrels during July and August, according to Bloomberg. Given that the trade between Russia and alternative importing countries is further developed after the sanctions’ full effect, it could add some support to the tonne miles.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 20 September 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 8.1 PCT IN AUGUST - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in August, official data showed.
The country produced 370 million tonnes of ra ...
Monday, 19 September 22
BUMA AUSTRALIA AWARDED A$400 MILLION CONTRACT EXTENSION BY BMA FOR GOONYELLA PROJECT
Press Release – PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. (the "Company") announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
CHINA WARNS COAL COMPANIES AGAINST DUAL CONTRACTS, KEEP PRICES STABLE - REUTERS
China’s state economic planner warned coal companies operating at ports in the Bohai Bay region to comply with their long-term contracts to k ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has i ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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