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Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. More specifically, Russian oil exports fell by 115k bpd in July to 7.4m bpd, from about 8m bpd at the start of the year, according to IEA’s August report. However, for the period Jan-Jul22 oil exports averaged 7.75m bpd, edging upwards compared to 7.5m bpd achieved in 2021 as a whole.
Crude and product flows to the US, UK, EU, Japan and Korea have slumped by 2.2 m bpd since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, two-thirds of them have been redirected mainly to China and India at discounted rates. Export revenues fell to $19 bn in July, -9.5% m-o-m, mainly on the back of reduced volumes and lower oil prices. Total flows of Russia’s crude to Asia fell by 500,000 bpd during the past three months, with flows slumping at the lowest since March. During the last week of August, according to Bloomberg, total flows slumped at 3.04m bpd, -16% w-o-w. Crude shipments to China are now about 50% of the total flows, -10% since April. Key driving factor is mainly China’s constrained oil demand due to consecutive lockdowns which prompted refineries to minimize their crude input, as well as simultaneous maintenance of multiple refineries. Another factor could be the narrowing of the price differential between Urals crude and Brent crude, which from about $30/bbl in April-May narrowed to approx. $19/bbl in July-August, according to Russia’s Ministry of Finance.
European imports of Russian crude surged during August’s last week to the highest level since April, mainly driven by the upcoming full effect of sanctions in December. According to Bloomberg, total flows of Urals crude rose to 3.41m bpd from a previous 3.24m bpd, mainly on the back of EU imports (Mediterranean, Northern Europe, and Black Sea region). Imports of Mediterranean countries soared to the highest level to reach 140k bpd, imports of Northern countries accounted for 398k bpd, while import volumes from the Black Sea region (Romania and Bulgaria) marked a 7-week high.
ESPO, on the other hand, has marked a 4-month high during August. ESPO shipments from the country’s Pacific Coast terminals rose to the highest level since April. More specifically, according to Bloomberg, 37 tankers departed from Kozmino in August carrying 875k bpd of ESPO. Meanwhile, combined exports from Kozmino, De Kastri, and Prigorodnoye surged to 942k bpd, +6.5% m-o-m. India edged as a key ESPO importer, displacing barrels from Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi and thus, realigning global crude flows. During August standalone, 6 vessels carrying ESPO headed to the country’s refineries, carrying a total volume of 142k bpd, +20.3% m-o-m.
With shifting trading patterns in the crude oil market, Russia must primarily rely on China and India to source its crude. China’s demand for Russian barrels, albeit lower in July according to GAC data, could recover as we head towards the winter season which will increase demand for oil amid elevated gas prices. Oil demand could be supported in September ahead of the peak of fishing and harvest activities, as well as the Autumn festival, all of which combined add tailwinds to gasoil consumption. In addition, some demand growth is expected during October, ahead of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist party which will be held in Beijing. The recent outbreak of Covid cases in many provinces, though, has forced cities to adopt virus containment measures and added headwinds to the winter demand growth forecast. Nevertheless, market sentiment remains bullish, overall, regarding the 2H2022 Chinese oil demand.
Conclusively, some smaller players have emerged which could potentially absorb more Russian crude in the mid-term, such as Sri Lanka and Egypt which snapped some Russian barrels during July and August, according to Bloomberg. Given that the trade between Russia and alternative importing countries is further developed after the sanctions’ full effect, it could add some support to the tonne miles.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 06 October 22
COAL INDIA ASKED TO ENHANCE SUPPLY TO THERMAL POWER PLANTS - IANS
With the festival season round the corner, Coal India Ltd. has been directed by the government to scale up dispatch to thermal power plants.
&n ...
Wednesday, 05 October 22
BUNKER PRICES DOWN AGAIN; IS THERE MORE TO COME? - INTEGR8 FUELS
It’s the economy…..”
VLSFO prices are now back to levels at the start of this year. After all the extremes of thi ...
Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russ ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
A REMARKABLE SHIFT IN FORTUNES HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKETS - ALLIED SHIPPING
A remarkable shift in fortunes has been noted in the crude oil tanker markets over the past month, yet despite these shifts being seemingly in thei ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
OIL PRICES COULD SOON RETURN TO $100 AS OPEC+ CONSIDERS ‘HISTORIC’ CUT, ANALYSTS SAY - CNBC
An influential alliance of some of the world’s most powerful oil producers is reportedly considering their largest output cut since the start ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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