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Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. More specifically, Russian oil exports fell by 115k bpd in July to 7.4m bpd, from about 8m bpd at the start of the year, according to IEA’s August report. However, for the period Jan-Jul22 oil exports averaged 7.75m bpd, edging upwards compared to 7.5m bpd achieved in 2021 as a whole.
Crude and product flows to the US, UK, EU, Japan and Korea have slumped by 2.2 m bpd since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, two-thirds of them have been redirected mainly to China and India at discounted rates. Export revenues fell to $19 bn in July, -9.5% m-o-m, mainly on the back of reduced volumes and lower oil prices. Total flows of Russia’s crude to Asia fell by 500,000 bpd during the past three months, with flows slumping at the lowest since March. During the last week of August, according to Bloomberg, total flows slumped at 3.04m bpd, -16% w-o-w. Crude shipments to China are now about 50% of the total flows, -10% since April. Key driving factor is mainly China’s constrained oil demand due to consecutive lockdowns which prompted refineries to minimize their crude input, as well as simultaneous maintenance of multiple refineries. Another factor could be the narrowing of the price differential between Urals crude and Brent crude, which from about $30/bbl in April-May narrowed to approx. $19/bbl in July-August, according to Russia’s Ministry of Finance.
European imports of Russian crude surged during August’s last week to the highest level since April, mainly driven by the upcoming full effect of sanctions in December. According to Bloomberg, total flows of Urals crude rose to 3.41m bpd from a previous 3.24m bpd, mainly on the back of EU imports (Mediterranean, Northern Europe, and Black Sea region). Imports of Mediterranean countries soared to the highest level to reach 140k bpd, imports of Northern countries accounted for 398k bpd, while import volumes from the Black Sea region (Romania and Bulgaria) marked a 7-week high.
ESPO, on the other hand, has marked a 4-month high during August. ESPO shipments from the country’s Pacific Coast terminals rose to the highest level since April. More specifically, according to Bloomberg, 37 tankers departed from Kozmino in August carrying 875k bpd of ESPO. Meanwhile, combined exports from Kozmino, De Kastri, and Prigorodnoye surged to 942k bpd, +6.5% m-o-m. India edged as a key ESPO importer, displacing barrels from Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi and thus, realigning global crude flows. During August standalone, 6 vessels carrying ESPO headed to the country’s refineries, carrying a total volume of 142k bpd, +20.3% m-o-m.
With shifting trading patterns in the crude oil market, Russia must primarily rely on China and India to source its crude. China’s demand for Russian barrels, albeit lower in July according to GAC data, could recover as we head towards the winter season which will increase demand for oil amid elevated gas prices. Oil demand could be supported in September ahead of the peak of fishing and harvest activities, as well as the Autumn festival, all of which combined add tailwinds to gasoil consumption. In addition, some demand growth is expected during October, ahead of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist party which will be held in Beijing. The recent outbreak of Covid cases in many provinces, though, has forced cities to adopt virus containment measures and added headwinds to the winter demand growth forecast. Nevertheless, market sentiment remains bullish, overall, regarding the 2H2022 Chinese oil demand.
Conclusively, some smaller players have emerged which could potentially absorb more Russian crude in the mid-term, such as Sri Lanka and Egypt which snapped some Russian barrels during July and August, according to Bloomberg. Given that the trade between Russia and alternative importing countries is further developed after the sanctions’ full effect, it could add some support to the tonne miles.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equ ...
Wednesday, 12 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Sale and Purchase activity during the first three quarters of 2022 has been remarkable.
Focusing only on Tankers and Bulkers, such v ...
Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation ...
Monday, 10 October 22
GLOBAL CEOS EXPECT IMPENDING RECESSION TO BE 'SHORT AND SHARP,' POLL SHOWS - CNBC
Global CEOs are anticipating a recession in the next 12 months, according to a new survey by professional services firm KPMG, which said more than ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
AUSTRALIA’S RESOURCES REVENUE TO HIT RECORD AMID UKRAINE CONFLICT - REUTERS
Australian resources and energy export earnings are forecast to jump 7% to a record A$450 billion ($290 billion) this fiscal year, bolstered by soa ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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