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Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. More specifically, Russian oil exports fell by 115k bpd in July to 7.4m bpd, from about 8m bpd at the start of the year, according to IEA’s August report. However, for the period Jan-Jul22 oil exports averaged 7.75m bpd, edging upwards compared to 7.5m bpd achieved in 2021 as a whole.
Crude and product flows to the US, UK, EU, Japan and Korea have slumped by 2.2 m bpd since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, two-thirds of them have been redirected mainly to China and India at discounted rates. Export revenues fell to $19 bn in July, -9.5% m-o-m, mainly on the back of reduced volumes and lower oil prices. Total flows of Russia’s crude to Asia fell by 500,000 bpd during the past three months, with flows slumping at the lowest since March. During the last week of August, according to Bloomberg, total flows slumped at 3.04m bpd, -16% w-o-w. Crude shipments to China are now about 50% of the total flows, -10% since April. Key driving factor is mainly China’s constrained oil demand due to consecutive lockdowns which prompted refineries to minimize their crude input, as well as simultaneous maintenance of multiple refineries. Another factor could be the narrowing of the price differential between Urals crude and Brent crude, which from about $30/bbl in April-May narrowed to approx. $19/bbl in July-August, according to Russia’s Ministry of Finance.
European imports of Russian crude surged during August’s last week to the highest level since April, mainly driven by the upcoming full effect of sanctions in December. According to Bloomberg, total flows of Urals crude rose to 3.41m bpd from a previous 3.24m bpd, mainly on the back of EU imports (Mediterranean, Northern Europe, and Black Sea region). Imports of Mediterranean countries soared to the highest level to reach 140k bpd, imports of Northern countries accounted for 398k bpd, while import volumes from the Black Sea region (Romania and Bulgaria) marked a 7-week high.
ESPO, on the other hand, has marked a 4-month high during August. ESPO shipments from the country’s Pacific Coast terminals rose to the highest level since April. More specifically, according to Bloomberg, 37 tankers departed from Kozmino in August carrying 875k bpd of ESPO. Meanwhile, combined exports from Kozmino, De Kastri, and Prigorodnoye surged to 942k bpd, +6.5% m-o-m. India edged as a key ESPO importer, displacing barrels from Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi and thus, realigning global crude flows. During August standalone, 6 vessels carrying ESPO headed to the country’s refineries, carrying a total volume of 142k bpd, +20.3% m-o-m.
With shifting trading patterns in the crude oil market, Russia must primarily rely on China and India to source its crude. China’s demand for Russian barrels, albeit lower in July according to GAC data, could recover as we head towards the winter season which will increase demand for oil amid elevated gas prices. Oil demand could be supported in September ahead of the peak of fishing and harvest activities, as well as the Autumn festival, all of which combined add tailwinds to gasoil consumption. In addition, some demand growth is expected during October, ahead of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist party which will be held in Beijing. The recent outbreak of Covid cases in many provinces, though, has forced cities to adopt virus containment measures and added headwinds to the winter demand growth forecast. Nevertheless, market sentiment remains bullish, overall, regarding the 2H2022 Chinese oil demand.
Conclusively, some smaller players have emerged which could potentially absorb more Russian crude in the mid-term, such as Sri Lanka and Egypt which snapped some Russian barrels during July and August, according to Bloomberg. Given that the trade between Russia and alternative importing countries is further developed after the sanctions’ full effect, it could add some support to the tonne miles.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 September 22
CHINA DIGS DEEP TO RAISE COAL OUTPUT TO RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal production has surged this year as the government seeks to improve energy security by reducing dependence on imports and amassin ...
Friday, 23 September 22
EUROPEAN STEEL BUYERS SEEK DIRECTION IN VOLATILE MARKET - MEPS INTERNATIONAL
Demand for steel is slow to recover, after the summer break. Mill production costs continue to increase. Steel purchasers are uncertain about the f ...
Friday, 23 September 22
BUOYANT COAL INDUSTRY SEEKS WAYS TO STAY IN THE LONG-TERM ENERGY MIX - REUTERS
There’s no doubt that the global coal industry has been a major beneficiary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent energy c ...
Friday, 23 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In view of the forthcoming winter, Europe is trying to escape from its energy (oil & gas) dependency from Russia to ensure energy abundance eve ...
Tuesday, 20 September 22
CHINA'S DAILY COAL OUTPUT HITS 3-MONTH LOW IN AUGUST ON RAINS, COVID CURBS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in August slipped to a three-month low as some mines in its biggest coal mining regions reduced operations or even ...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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