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Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. More specifically, Russian oil exports fell by 115k bpd in July to 7.4m bpd, from about 8m bpd at the start of the year, according to IEA’s August report. However, for the period Jan-Jul22 oil exports averaged 7.75m bpd, edging upwards compared to 7.5m bpd achieved in 2021 as a whole.
Crude and product flows to the US, UK, EU, Japan and Korea have slumped by 2.2 m bpd since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, two-thirds of them have been redirected mainly to China and India at discounted rates. Export revenues fell to $19 bn in July, -9.5% m-o-m, mainly on the back of reduced volumes and lower oil prices. Total flows of Russia’s crude to Asia fell by 500,000 bpd during the past three months, with flows slumping at the lowest since March. During the last week of August, according to Bloomberg, total flows slumped at 3.04m bpd, -16% w-o-w. Crude shipments to China are now about 50% of the total flows, -10% since April. Key driving factor is mainly China’s constrained oil demand due to consecutive lockdowns which prompted refineries to minimize their crude input, as well as simultaneous maintenance of multiple refineries. Another factor could be the narrowing of the price differential between Urals crude and Brent crude, which from about $30/bbl in April-May narrowed to approx. $19/bbl in July-August, according to Russia’s Ministry of Finance.
European imports of Russian crude surged during August’s last week to the highest level since April, mainly driven by the upcoming full effect of sanctions in December. According to Bloomberg, total flows of Urals crude rose to 3.41m bpd from a previous 3.24m bpd, mainly on the back of EU imports (Mediterranean, Northern Europe, and Black Sea region). Imports of Mediterranean countries soared to the highest level to reach 140k bpd, imports of Northern countries accounted for 398k bpd, while import volumes from the Black Sea region (Romania and Bulgaria) marked a 7-week high.
ESPO, on the other hand, has marked a 4-month high during August. ESPO shipments from the country’s Pacific Coast terminals rose to the highest level since April. More specifically, according to Bloomberg, 37 tankers departed from Kozmino in August carrying 875k bpd of ESPO. Meanwhile, combined exports from Kozmino, De Kastri, and Prigorodnoye surged to 942k bpd, +6.5% m-o-m. India edged as a key ESPO importer, displacing barrels from Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi and thus, realigning global crude flows. During August standalone, 6 vessels carrying ESPO headed to the country’s refineries, carrying a total volume of 142k bpd, +20.3% m-o-m.
With shifting trading patterns in the crude oil market, Russia must primarily rely on China and India to source its crude. China’s demand for Russian barrels, albeit lower in July according to GAC data, could recover as we head towards the winter season which will increase demand for oil amid elevated gas prices. Oil demand could be supported in September ahead of the peak of fishing and harvest activities, as well as the Autumn festival, all of which combined add tailwinds to gasoil consumption. In addition, some demand growth is expected during October, ahead of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist party which will be held in Beijing. The recent outbreak of Covid cases in many provinces, though, has forced cities to adopt virus containment measures and added headwinds to the winter demand growth forecast. Nevertheless, market sentiment remains bullish, overall, regarding the 2H2022 Chinese oil demand.
Conclusively, some smaller players have emerged which could potentially absorb more Russian crude in the mid-term, such as Sri Lanka and Egypt which snapped some Russian barrels during July and August, according to Bloomberg. Given that the trade between Russia and alternative importing countries is further developed after the sanctions’ full effect, it could add some support to the tonne miles.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the ...
Sunday, 16 October 22
COULD A RETURN TO SHALE EXPLORATION BE PART OF THE SOLUTION TO EUROPE'S GAS SUPPLY PROBLEM? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The European gas market is in turmoil. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken things up, triggering a complete rethink of European energy st ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
THERMAL COAL PRICES RETREAT AS WINTER SUPPLY FEARS EASE - REUTERS
The prices of key thermal seaborne coal grades are retreating amid signs that supplies will be sufficient to meet winter demand in both Europe and ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
SPOT COAL BIDDING: CHINESE FIRM WANTS REVISED MECHANISM - BUSINESS RECORDER
Chinese company M/s Huaneng Shandong Ruyi (Pakistan) Energy Limited (HSR) has cautioned National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) that i ...
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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