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Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. More specifically, Russian oil exports fell by 115k bpd in July to 7.4m bpd, from about 8m bpd at the start of the year, according to IEA’s August report. However, for the period Jan-Jul22 oil exports averaged 7.75m bpd, edging upwards compared to 7.5m bpd achieved in 2021 as a whole.
Crude and product flows to the US, UK, EU, Japan and Korea have slumped by 2.2 m bpd since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, two-thirds of them have been redirected mainly to China and India at discounted rates. Export revenues fell to $19 bn in July, -9.5% m-o-m, mainly on the back of reduced volumes and lower oil prices. Total flows of Russia’s crude to Asia fell by 500,000 bpd during the past three months, with flows slumping at the lowest since March. During the last week of August, according to Bloomberg, total flows slumped at 3.04m bpd, -16% w-o-w. Crude shipments to China are now about 50% of the total flows, -10% since April. Key driving factor is mainly China’s constrained oil demand due to consecutive lockdowns which prompted refineries to minimize their crude input, as well as simultaneous maintenance of multiple refineries. Another factor could be the narrowing of the price differential between Urals crude and Brent crude, which from about $30/bbl in April-May narrowed to approx. $19/bbl in July-August, according to Russia’s Ministry of Finance.
European imports of Russian crude surged during August’s last week to the highest level since April, mainly driven by the upcoming full effect of sanctions in December. According to Bloomberg, total flows of Urals crude rose to 3.41m bpd from a previous 3.24m bpd, mainly on the back of EU imports (Mediterranean, Northern Europe, and Black Sea region). Imports of Mediterranean countries soared to the highest level to reach 140k bpd, imports of Northern countries accounted for 398k bpd, while import volumes from the Black Sea region (Romania and Bulgaria) marked a 7-week high.
ESPO, on the other hand, has marked a 4-month high during August. ESPO shipments from the country’s Pacific Coast terminals rose to the highest level since April. More specifically, according to Bloomberg, 37 tankers departed from Kozmino in August carrying 875k bpd of ESPO. Meanwhile, combined exports from Kozmino, De Kastri, and Prigorodnoye surged to 942k bpd, +6.5% m-o-m. India edged as a key ESPO importer, displacing barrels from Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi and thus, realigning global crude flows. During August standalone, 6 vessels carrying ESPO headed to the country’s refineries, carrying a total volume of 142k bpd, +20.3% m-o-m.
With shifting trading patterns in the crude oil market, Russia must primarily rely on China and India to source its crude. China’s demand for Russian barrels, albeit lower in July according to GAC data, could recover as we head towards the winter season which will increase demand for oil amid elevated gas prices. Oil demand could be supported in September ahead of the peak of fishing and harvest activities, as well as the Autumn festival, all of which combined add tailwinds to gasoil consumption. In addition, some demand growth is expected during October, ahead of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist party which will be held in Beijing. The recent outbreak of Covid cases in many provinces, though, has forced cities to adopt virus containment measures and added headwinds to the winter demand growth forecast. Nevertheless, market sentiment remains bullish, overall, regarding the 2H2022 Chinese oil demand.
Conclusively, some smaller players have emerged which could potentially absorb more Russian crude in the mid-term, such as Sri Lanka and Egypt which snapped some Russian barrels during July and August, according to Bloomberg. Given that the trade between Russia and alternative importing countries is further developed after the sanctions’ full effect, it could add some support to the tonne miles.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 31 October 22
U.S. COAL-FIRED GENERATION DECLINING AFTER BRIEF RISE LAST YEAR - EIA
We expect 6% less U.S. coal-fired generation in 2022 than in 2021, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Although coal-fired ge ...
Monday, 31 October 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 12.3 PCT IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in September, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of ...
Wednesday, 26 October 22
BIMCO PUBLISHES UPDATED GENCON CONTRACT
BIMCO has published a revised and updated version GENCON 2022 – one of its flagship contracts within its portfolio of standard contracts for ...
Monday, 24 October 22
KOSPO TO INVITE 400,000 MT OF COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an international tender for 400,000 MT of 3,800 - 4,400kcal/kg NCV and Sulfur Max 0 ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
ASIA COULD BE A BRIGHT SPOT AMID GLOBAL DOWNTURN NEXT YEAR, ECONOMISTS SAY - CNBC
Asia — especially Southeast Asia — remains a bright spot, even as the global economy looks set to head into recession next year, econom ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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