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Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. More specifically, Russian oil exports fell by 115k bpd in July to 7.4m bpd, from about 8m bpd at the start of the year, according to IEA’s August report. However, for the period Jan-Jul22 oil exports averaged 7.75m bpd, edging upwards compared to 7.5m bpd achieved in 2021 as a whole.
Crude and product flows to the US, UK, EU, Japan and Korea have slumped by 2.2 m bpd since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, two-thirds of them have been redirected mainly to China and India at discounted rates. Export revenues fell to $19 bn in July, -9.5% m-o-m, mainly on the back of reduced volumes and lower oil prices. Total flows of Russia’s crude to Asia fell by 500,000 bpd during the past three months, with flows slumping at the lowest since March. During the last week of August, according to Bloomberg, total flows slumped at 3.04m bpd, -16% w-o-w. Crude shipments to China are now about 50% of the total flows, -10% since April. Key driving factor is mainly China’s constrained oil demand due to consecutive lockdowns which prompted refineries to minimize their crude input, as well as simultaneous maintenance of multiple refineries. Another factor could be the narrowing of the price differential between Urals crude and Brent crude, which from about $30/bbl in April-May narrowed to approx. $19/bbl in July-August, according to Russia’s Ministry of Finance.
European imports of Russian crude surged during August’s last week to the highest level since April, mainly driven by the upcoming full effect of sanctions in December. According to Bloomberg, total flows of Urals crude rose to 3.41m bpd from a previous 3.24m bpd, mainly on the back of EU imports (Mediterranean, Northern Europe, and Black Sea region). Imports of Mediterranean countries soared to the highest level to reach 140k bpd, imports of Northern countries accounted for 398k bpd, while import volumes from the Black Sea region (Romania and Bulgaria) marked a 7-week high.
ESPO, on the other hand, has marked a 4-month high during August. ESPO shipments from the country’s Pacific Coast terminals rose to the highest level since April. More specifically, according to Bloomberg, 37 tankers departed from Kozmino in August carrying 875k bpd of ESPO. Meanwhile, combined exports from Kozmino, De Kastri, and Prigorodnoye surged to 942k bpd, +6.5% m-o-m. India edged as a key ESPO importer, displacing barrels from Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi and thus, realigning global crude flows. During August standalone, 6 vessels carrying ESPO headed to the country’s refineries, carrying a total volume of 142k bpd, +20.3% m-o-m.
With shifting trading patterns in the crude oil market, Russia must primarily rely on China and India to source its crude. China’s demand for Russian barrels, albeit lower in July according to GAC data, could recover as we head towards the winter season which will increase demand for oil amid elevated gas prices. Oil demand could be supported in September ahead of the peak of fishing and harvest activities, as well as the Autumn festival, all of which combined add tailwinds to gasoil consumption. In addition, some demand growth is expected during October, ahead of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist party which will be held in Beijing. The recent outbreak of Covid cases in many provinces, though, has forced cities to adopt virus containment measures and added headwinds to the winter demand growth forecast. Nevertheless, market sentiment remains bullish, overall, regarding the 2H2022 Chinese oil demand.
Conclusively, some smaller players have emerged which could potentially absorb more Russian crude in the mid-term, such as Sri Lanka and Egypt which snapped some Russian barrels during July and August, according to Bloomberg. Given that the trade between Russia and alternative importing countries is further developed after the sanctions’ full effect, it could add some support to the tonne miles.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 04 November 22
CHINA EXPANDS COAL TERM CONTRACTS TO ALL MINES TO STABILIZE MARKET - REUTERS
China has expanded long-term thermal coal supply contracts for 2023 to all coal mines and asked power utilities to source more of their demand thro ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
HANDYSIZE VALUES MOVING UP IN OCTOBER, WHILE LNG VALUES SKYROCKET - VESSELSVALUE
Handysize values have increased this month across most ages, following a period of decline. Values for generic 10 year old Handysizes have moved up ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
EUROPEAN GAS SUPPLY SURPLUS, NOVEMBER HBA DOWN TO US$ 308.2 PER TON - ESDM
European gas supply conditions have a major influence in determining fluctuations in the Reference Coal Price (HBA). The November 2022 HBA recorded ...
Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially th ...
Tuesday, 01 November 22
CHINA COAL TRADE DISRUPTED BY COVID OUTBREAKS AS WINTER LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s strict COVID-19 policy is constraining coal supplies and pushing up prices, industry officials and traders say, just weeks before the ...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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