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Wednesday, 31 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Scorching temperatures and extremely dry conditions during the Northern hemisphere summer have been drying crops. Yield prospects have subsided in many key growing areas, raising concerns regarding global food security, amid rallying food inflation.
In the US, recently released estimates from Pro Farmer, regarding corn and soybean crops, are 4% lower than the official government forecasts, which is dismaying. Bolstering heat and drought have severely impacted part of the Farm Belt over the previous months. Production output is crucial, as it will determine grain prices for the upcoming months. According to USDA’s latest report, in total, 89.8 million acres were planted to corn in 2022, while 87.2 million acres were planted to soybean. Overall, corn production is decreased by 5% y-o-y, while soybean harvest is forecasted to increase by 2% y-o-y.
In China, the worst drought since the early 1960s in central and southwestern areas paired with floods in the northeast threaten hundreds of million tons of grain harvest that is reaped during the fall. Rice harvests in areas along the Yangtze River and the Sichuan basin, the two regions where half of the country’s rice is produced, have been severely impacted. Total corn output is also estimated to be reduced by 4.5mn tons due to floods, according to Chinese commodities broker Yongan Futures Co. A loss of harvest will lead to increased demand for imports and will push prices upwards, posing threat to global food security. The country is now turning to the US for imports amid surging Brazil soybean prices, with a total of 859,836 tons being imported to the country since April 22, according to USDA.
India’s rice harvest is expected to significantly drop as of shrunk planted region due to extremely high temperatures. According to the country’s Food Corporation, rice harvest is expected to drop by 10% in the upcoming harvest season, typically occurring between November-December, decreasing the country’s rice output to 117mn metric tons. According to USDA Foreign Agriculture Service, 110 million tons out of the total 117 million tons, will be domestically consumed, thus leaving a total of 7 million tons for exports. August wheat stocks also slumped to a 14-year record low, while wheat inflation hit 12%. The country is discussing a potential curb on broken rice exports, which if decided will have ripple effects on the global food supply chain, while on Aug.27 it announced a ban on wheat flour exports with occasional exceptions.
Ukraine’s grain is leaving its ports smoothly with exports steadily ramping up. Ukraine’s grain exports are currently 50% lower y-o-y. Ukrainian wheat sales, albeit improved, are not adequate to support wheat prices, which stand currently below growing costs. On Aug.30, the country's Ministry of Infrastructures announced that approx. 1.5mn tons of grains have been exported so far from the country’s ports. However, next season’s harvest, which has already started to be sown, is undermined by destroyed farmlands and weak domestic prices.
Meanwhile, in the rest EU area, farmers have been grappling with drought, while estimating their summer crop yields to drop significantly. EU’s corn crop is estimated to hit a 15-year low, estimated at 59.3mn tons in 2022/2023 harvest, according to the European Commission’ latest forecast. According to FranceAgriMer, only 53% of the country’s corn crop is in good or very good condition, while according to Agritel’s latest estimate, the country’s 2022/2023 wheat production will reach 33.63mn tons, slumping below the 5-year average. Meanwhile, in Romania farmers have been forced to harvest their corn crops one month earlier on the back of extremely dry conditions. The country expects a 15% lower wheat output y-o-y, approx. 9mn tons, according to the Minister of Agriculture.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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