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Wednesday, 31 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Scorching temperatures and extremely dry conditions during the Northern hemisphere summer have been drying crops. Yield prospects have subsided in many key growing areas, raising concerns regarding global food security, amid rallying food inflation.
In the US, recently released estimates from Pro Farmer, regarding corn and soybean crops, are 4% lower than the official government forecasts, which is dismaying. Bolstering heat and drought have severely impacted part of the Farm Belt over the previous months. Production output is crucial, as it will determine grain prices for the upcoming months. According to USDA’s latest report, in total, 89.8 million acres were planted to corn in 2022, while 87.2 million acres were planted to soybean. Overall, corn production is decreased by 5% y-o-y, while soybean harvest is forecasted to increase by 2% y-o-y.
In China, the worst drought since the early 1960s in central and southwestern areas paired with floods in the northeast threaten hundreds of million tons of grain harvest that is reaped during the fall. Rice harvests in areas along the Yangtze River and the Sichuan basin, the two regions where half of the country’s rice is produced, have been severely impacted. Total corn output is also estimated to be reduced by 4.5mn tons due to floods, according to Chinese commodities broker Yongan Futures Co. A loss of harvest will lead to increased demand for imports and will push prices upwards, posing threat to global food security. The country is now turning to the US for imports amid surging Brazil soybean prices, with a total of 859,836 tons being imported to the country since April 22, according to USDA.
India’s rice harvest is expected to significantly drop as of shrunk planted region due to extremely high temperatures. According to the country’s Food Corporation, rice harvest is expected to drop by 10% in the upcoming harvest season, typically occurring between November-December, decreasing the country’s rice output to 117mn metric tons. According to USDA Foreign Agriculture Service, 110 million tons out of the total 117 million tons, will be domestically consumed, thus leaving a total of 7 million tons for exports. August wheat stocks also slumped to a 14-year record low, while wheat inflation hit 12%. The country is discussing a potential curb on broken rice exports, which if decided will have ripple effects on the global food supply chain, while on Aug.27 it announced a ban on wheat flour exports with occasional exceptions.
Ukraine’s grain is leaving its ports smoothly with exports steadily ramping up. Ukraine’s grain exports are currently 50% lower y-o-y. Ukrainian wheat sales, albeit improved, are not adequate to support wheat prices, which stand currently below growing costs. On Aug.30, the country's Ministry of Infrastructures announced that approx. 1.5mn tons of grains have been exported so far from the country’s ports. However, next season’s harvest, which has already started to be sown, is undermined by destroyed farmlands and weak domestic prices.
Meanwhile, in the rest EU area, farmers have been grappling with drought, while estimating their summer crop yields to drop significantly. EU’s corn crop is estimated to hit a 15-year low, estimated at 59.3mn tons in 2022/2023 harvest, according to the European Commission’ latest forecast. According to FranceAgriMer, only 53% of the country’s corn crop is in good or very good condition, while according to Agritel’s latest estimate, the country’s 2022/2023 wheat production will reach 33.63mn tons, slumping below the 5-year average. Meanwhile, in Romania farmers have been forced to harvest their corn crops one month earlier on the back of extremely dry conditions. The country expects a 15% lower wheat output y-o-y, approx. 9mn tons, according to the Minister of Agriculture.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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