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Wednesday, 31 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Scorching temperatures and extremely dry conditions during the Northern hemisphere summer have been drying crops. Yield prospects have subsided in many key growing areas, raising concerns regarding global food security, amid rallying food inflation.
In the US, recently released estimates from Pro Farmer, regarding corn and soybean crops, are 4% lower than the official government forecasts, which is dismaying. Bolstering heat and drought have severely impacted part of the Farm Belt over the previous months. Production output is crucial, as it will determine grain prices for the upcoming months. According to USDA’s latest report, in total, 89.8 million acres were planted to corn in 2022, while 87.2 million acres were planted to soybean. Overall, corn production is decreased by 5% y-o-y, while soybean harvest is forecasted to increase by 2% y-o-y.
In China, the worst drought since the early 1960s in central and southwestern areas paired with floods in the northeast threaten hundreds of million tons of grain harvest that is reaped during the fall. Rice harvests in areas along the Yangtze River and the Sichuan basin, the two regions where half of the country’s rice is produced, have been severely impacted. Total corn output is also estimated to be reduced by 4.5mn tons due to floods, according to Chinese commodities broker Yongan Futures Co. A loss of harvest will lead to increased demand for imports and will push prices upwards, posing threat to global food security. The country is now turning to the US for imports amid surging Brazil soybean prices, with a total of 859,836 tons being imported to the country since April 22, according to USDA.
India’s rice harvest is expected to significantly drop as of shrunk planted region due to extremely high temperatures. According to the country’s Food Corporation, rice harvest is expected to drop by 10% in the upcoming harvest season, typically occurring between November-December, decreasing the country’s rice output to 117mn metric tons. According to USDA Foreign Agriculture Service, 110 million tons out of the total 117 million tons, will be domestically consumed, thus leaving a total of 7 million tons for exports. August wheat stocks also slumped to a 14-year record low, while wheat inflation hit 12%. The country is discussing a potential curb on broken rice exports, which if decided will have ripple effects on the global food supply chain, while on Aug.27 it announced a ban on wheat flour exports with occasional exceptions.
Ukraine’s grain is leaving its ports smoothly with exports steadily ramping up. Ukraine’s grain exports are currently 50% lower y-o-y. Ukrainian wheat sales, albeit improved, are not adequate to support wheat prices, which stand currently below growing costs. On Aug.30, the country's Ministry of Infrastructures announced that approx. 1.5mn tons of grains have been exported so far from the country’s ports. However, next season’s harvest, which has already started to be sown, is undermined by destroyed farmlands and weak domestic prices.
Meanwhile, in the rest EU area, farmers have been grappling with drought, while estimating their summer crop yields to drop significantly. EU’s corn crop is estimated to hit a 15-year low, estimated at 59.3mn tons in 2022/2023 harvest, according to the European Commission’ latest forecast. According to FranceAgriMer, only 53% of the country’s corn crop is in good or very good condition, while according to Agritel’s latest estimate, the country’s 2022/2023 wheat production will reach 33.63mn tons, slumping below the 5-year average. Meanwhile, in Romania farmers have been forced to harvest their corn crops one month earlier on the back of extremely dry conditions. The country expects a 15% lower wheat output y-o-y, approx. 9mn tons, according to the Minister of Agriculture.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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