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Wednesday, 31 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Scorching temperatures and extremely dry conditions during the Northern hemisphere summer have been drying crops. Yield prospects have subsided in many key growing areas, raising concerns regarding global food security, amid rallying food inflation.
In the US, recently released estimates from Pro Farmer, regarding corn and soybean crops, are 4% lower than the official government forecasts, which is dismaying. Bolstering heat and drought have severely impacted part of the Farm Belt over the previous months. Production output is crucial, as it will determine grain prices for the upcoming months. According to USDA’s latest report, in total, 89.8 million acres were planted to corn in 2022, while 87.2 million acres were planted to soybean. Overall, corn production is decreased by 5% y-o-y, while soybean harvest is forecasted to increase by 2% y-o-y.
In China, the worst drought since the early 1960s in central and southwestern areas paired with floods in the northeast threaten hundreds of million tons of grain harvest that is reaped during the fall. Rice harvests in areas along the Yangtze River and the Sichuan basin, the two regions where half of the country’s rice is produced, have been severely impacted. Total corn output is also estimated to be reduced by 4.5mn tons due to floods, according to Chinese commodities broker Yongan Futures Co. A loss of harvest will lead to increased demand for imports and will push prices upwards, posing threat to global food security. The country is now turning to the US for imports amid surging Brazil soybean prices, with a total of 859,836 tons being imported to the country since April 22, according to USDA.
India’s rice harvest is expected to significantly drop as of shrunk planted region due to extremely high temperatures. According to the country’s Food Corporation, rice harvest is expected to drop by 10% in the upcoming harvest season, typically occurring between November-December, decreasing the country’s rice output to 117mn metric tons. According to USDA Foreign Agriculture Service, 110 million tons out of the total 117 million tons, will be domestically consumed, thus leaving a total of 7 million tons for exports. August wheat stocks also slumped to a 14-year record low, while wheat inflation hit 12%. The country is discussing a potential curb on broken rice exports, which if decided will have ripple effects on the global food supply chain, while on Aug.27 it announced a ban on wheat flour exports with occasional exceptions.
Ukraine’s grain is leaving its ports smoothly with exports steadily ramping up. Ukraine’s grain exports are currently 50% lower y-o-y. Ukrainian wheat sales, albeit improved, are not adequate to support wheat prices, which stand currently below growing costs. On Aug.30, the country's Ministry of Infrastructures announced that approx. 1.5mn tons of grains have been exported so far from the country’s ports. However, next season’s harvest, which has already started to be sown, is undermined by destroyed farmlands and weak domestic prices.
Meanwhile, in the rest EU area, farmers have been grappling with drought, while estimating their summer crop yields to drop significantly. EU’s corn crop is estimated to hit a 15-year low, estimated at 59.3mn tons in 2022/2023 harvest, according to the European Commission’ latest forecast. According to FranceAgriMer, only 53% of the country’s corn crop is in good or very good condition, while according to Agritel’s latest estimate, the country’s 2022/2023 wheat production will reach 33.63mn tons, slumping below the 5-year average. Meanwhile, in Romania farmers have been forced to harvest their corn crops one month earlier on the back of extremely dry conditions. The country expects a 15% lower wheat output y-o-y, approx. 9mn tons, according to the Minister of Agriculture.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
...
Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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