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Wednesday, 31 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Scorching temperatures and extremely dry conditions during the Northern hemisphere summer have been drying crops. Yield prospects have subsided in many key growing areas, raising concerns regarding global food security, amid rallying food inflation.
In the US, recently released estimates from Pro Farmer, regarding corn and soybean crops, are 4% lower than the official government forecasts, which is dismaying. Bolstering heat and drought have severely impacted part of the Farm Belt over the previous months. Production output is crucial, as it will determine grain prices for the upcoming months. According to USDA’s latest report, in total, 89.8 million acres were planted to corn in 2022, while 87.2 million acres were planted to soybean. Overall, corn production is decreased by 5% y-o-y, while soybean harvest is forecasted to increase by 2% y-o-y.
In China, the worst drought since the early 1960s in central and southwestern areas paired with floods in the northeast threaten hundreds of million tons of grain harvest that is reaped during the fall. Rice harvests in areas along the Yangtze River and the Sichuan basin, the two regions where half of the country’s rice is produced, have been severely impacted. Total corn output is also estimated to be reduced by 4.5mn tons due to floods, according to Chinese commodities broker Yongan Futures Co. A loss of harvest will lead to increased demand for imports and will push prices upwards, posing threat to global food security. The country is now turning to the US for imports amid surging Brazil soybean prices, with a total of 859,836 tons being imported to the country since April 22, according to USDA.
India’s rice harvest is expected to significantly drop as of shrunk planted region due to extremely high temperatures. According to the country’s Food Corporation, rice harvest is expected to drop by 10% in the upcoming harvest season, typically occurring between November-December, decreasing the country’s rice output to 117mn metric tons. According to USDA Foreign Agriculture Service, 110 million tons out of the total 117 million tons, will be domestically consumed, thus leaving a total of 7 million tons for exports. August wheat stocks also slumped to a 14-year record low, while wheat inflation hit 12%. The country is discussing a potential curb on broken rice exports, which if decided will have ripple effects on the global food supply chain, while on Aug.27 it announced a ban on wheat flour exports with occasional exceptions.
Ukraine’s grain is leaving its ports smoothly with exports steadily ramping up. Ukraine’s grain exports are currently 50% lower y-o-y. Ukrainian wheat sales, albeit improved, are not adequate to support wheat prices, which stand currently below growing costs. On Aug.30, the country's Ministry of Infrastructures announced that approx. 1.5mn tons of grains have been exported so far from the country’s ports. However, next season’s harvest, which has already started to be sown, is undermined by destroyed farmlands and weak domestic prices.
Meanwhile, in the rest EU area, farmers have been grappling with drought, while estimating their summer crop yields to drop significantly. EU’s corn crop is estimated to hit a 15-year low, estimated at 59.3mn tons in 2022/2023 harvest, according to the European Commission’ latest forecast. According to FranceAgriMer, only 53% of the country’s corn crop is in good or very good condition, while according to Agritel’s latest estimate, the country’s 2022/2023 wheat production will reach 33.63mn tons, slumping below the 5-year average. Meanwhile, in Romania farmers have been forced to harvest their corn crops one month earlier on the back of extremely dry conditions. The country expects a 15% lower wheat output y-o-y, approx. 9mn tons, according to the Minister of Agriculture.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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