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Wednesday, 31 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Scorching temperatures and extremely dry conditions during the Northern hemisphere summer have been drying crops. Yield prospects have subsided in many key growing areas, raising concerns regarding global food security, amid rallying food inflation.
In the US, recently released estimates from Pro Farmer, regarding corn and soybean crops, are 4% lower than the official government forecasts, which is dismaying. Bolstering heat and drought have severely impacted part of the Farm Belt over the previous months. Production output is crucial, as it will determine grain prices for the upcoming months. According to USDA’s latest report, in total, 89.8 million acres were planted to corn in 2022, while 87.2 million acres were planted to soybean. Overall, corn production is decreased by 5% y-o-y, while soybean harvest is forecasted to increase by 2% y-o-y.
In China, the worst drought since the early 1960s in central and southwestern areas paired with floods in the northeast threaten hundreds of million tons of grain harvest that is reaped during the fall. Rice harvests in areas along the Yangtze River and the Sichuan basin, the two regions where half of the country’s rice is produced, have been severely impacted. Total corn output is also estimated to be reduced by 4.5mn tons due to floods, according to Chinese commodities broker Yongan Futures Co. A loss of harvest will lead to increased demand for imports and will push prices upwards, posing threat to global food security. The country is now turning to the US for imports amid surging Brazil soybean prices, with a total of 859,836 tons being imported to the country since April 22, according to USDA.
India’s rice harvest is expected to significantly drop as of shrunk planted region due to extremely high temperatures. According to the country’s Food Corporation, rice harvest is expected to drop by 10% in the upcoming harvest season, typically occurring between November-December, decreasing the country’s rice output to 117mn metric tons. According to USDA Foreign Agriculture Service, 110 million tons out of the total 117 million tons, will be domestically consumed, thus leaving a total of 7 million tons for exports. August wheat stocks also slumped to a 14-year record low, while wheat inflation hit 12%. The country is discussing a potential curb on broken rice exports, which if decided will have ripple effects on the global food supply chain, while on Aug.27 it announced a ban on wheat flour exports with occasional exceptions.
Ukraine’s grain is leaving its ports smoothly with exports steadily ramping up. Ukraine’s grain exports are currently 50% lower y-o-y. Ukrainian wheat sales, albeit improved, are not adequate to support wheat prices, which stand currently below growing costs. On Aug.30, the country's Ministry of Infrastructures announced that approx. 1.5mn tons of grains have been exported so far from the country’s ports. However, next season’s harvest, which has already started to be sown, is undermined by destroyed farmlands and weak domestic prices.
Meanwhile, in the rest EU area, farmers have been grappling with drought, while estimating their summer crop yields to drop significantly. EU’s corn crop is estimated to hit a 15-year low, estimated at 59.3mn tons in 2022/2023 harvest, according to the European Commission’ latest forecast. According to FranceAgriMer, only 53% of the country’s corn crop is in good or very good condition, while according to Agritel’s latest estimate, the country’s 2022/2023 wheat production will reach 33.63mn tons, slumping below the 5-year average. Meanwhile, in Romania farmers have been forced to harvest their corn crops one month earlier on the back of extremely dry conditions. The country expects a 15% lower wheat output y-o-y, approx. 9mn tons, according to the Minister of Agriculture.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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