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Wednesday, 31 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Scorching temperatures and extremely dry conditions during the Northern hemisphere summer have been drying crops. Yield prospects have subsided in many key growing areas, raising concerns regarding global food security, amid rallying food inflation.
In the US, recently released estimates from Pro Farmer, regarding corn and soybean crops, are 4% lower than the official government forecasts, which is dismaying. Bolstering heat and drought have severely impacted part of the Farm Belt over the previous months. Production output is crucial, as it will determine grain prices for the upcoming months. According to USDA’s latest report, in total, 89.8 million acres were planted to corn in 2022, while 87.2 million acres were planted to soybean. Overall, corn production is decreased by 5% y-o-y, while soybean harvest is forecasted to increase by 2% y-o-y.
In China, the worst drought since the early 1960s in central and southwestern areas paired with floods in the northeast threaten hundreds of million tons of grain harvest that is reaped during the fall. Rice harvests in areas along the Yangtze River and the Sichuan basin, the two regions where half of the country’s rice is produced, have been severely impacted. Total corn output is also estimated to be reduced by 4.5mn tons due to floods, according to Chinese commodities broker Yongan Futures Co. A loss of harvest will lead to increased demand for imports and will push prices upwards, posing threat to global food security. The country is now turning to the US for imports amid surging Brazil soybean prices, with a total of 859,836 tons being imported to the country since April 22, according to USDA.
India’s rice harvest is expected to significantly drop as of shrunk planted region due to extremely high temperatures. According to the country’s Food Corporation, rice harvest is expected to drop by 10% in the upcoming harvest season, typically occurring between November-December, decreasing the country’s rice output to 117mn metric tons. According to USDA Foreign Agriculture Service, 110 million tons out of the total 117 million tons, will be domestically consumed, thus leaving a total of 7 million tons for exports. August wheat stocks also slumped to a 14-year record low, while wheat inflation hit 12%. The country is discussing a potential curb on broken rice exports, which if decided will have ripple effects on the global food supply chain, while on Aug.27 it announced a ban on wheat flour exports with occasional exceptions.
Ukraine’s grain is leaving its ports smoothly with exports steadily ramping up. Ukraine’s grain exports are currently 50% lower y-o-y. Ukrainian wheat sales, albeit improved, are not adequate to support wheat prices, which stand currently below growing costs. On Aug.30, the country's Ministry of Infrastructures announced that approx. 1.5mn tons of grains have been exported so far from the country’s ports. However, next season’s harvest, which has already started to be sown, is undermined by destroyed farmlands and weak domestic prices.
Meanwhile, in the rest EU area, farmers have been grappling with drought, while estimating their summer crop yields to drop significantly. EU’s corn crop is estimated to hit a 15-year low, estimated at 59.3mn tons in 2022/2023 harvest, according to the European Commission’ latest forecast. According to FranceAgriMer, only 53% of the country’s corn crop is in good or very good condition, while according to Agritel’s latest estimate, the country’s 2022/2023 wheat production will reach 33.63mn tons, slumping below the 5-year average. Meanwhile, in Romania farmers have been forced to harvest their corn crops one month earlier on the back of extremely dry conditions. The country expects a 15% lower wheat output y-o-y, approx. 9mn tons, according to the Minister of Agriculture.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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