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Wednesday, 31 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Scorching temperatures and extremely dry conditions during the Northern hemisphere summer have been drying crops. Yield prospects have subsided in many key growing areas, raising concerns regarding global food security, amid rallying food inflation.
In the US, recently released estimates from Pro Farmer, regarding corn and soybean crops, are 4% lower than the official government forecasts, which is dismaying. Bolstering heat and drought have severely impacted part of the Farm Belt over the previous months. Production output is crucial, as it will determine grain prices for the upcoming months. According to USDA’s latest report, in total, 89.8 million acres were planted to corn in 2022, while 87.2 million acres were planted to soybean. Overall, corn production is decreased by 5% y-o-y, while soybean harvest is forecasted to increase by 2% y-o-y.
In China, the worst drought since the early 1960s in central and southwestern areas paired with floods in the northeast threaten hundreds of million tons of grain harvest that is reaped during the fall. Rice harvests in areas along the Yangtze River and the Sichuan basin, the two regions where half of the country’s rice is produced, have been severely impacted. Total corn output is also estimated to be reduced by 4.5mn tons due to floods, according to Chinese commodities broker Yongan Futures Co. A loss of harvest will lead to increased demand for imports and will push prices upwards, posing threat to global food security. The country is now turning to the US for imports amid surging Brazil soybean prices, with a total of 859,836 tons being imported to the country since April 22, according to USDA.
India’s rice harvest is expected to significantly drop as of shrunk planted region due to extremely high temperatures. According to the country’s Food Corporation, rice harvest is expected to drop by 10% in the upcoming harvest season, typically occurring between November-December, decreasing the country’s rice output to 117mn metric tons. According to USDA Foreign Agriculture Service, 110 million tons out of the total 117 million tons, will be domestically consumed, thus leaving a total of 7 million tons for exports. August wheat stocks also slumped to a 14-year record low, while wheat inflation hit 12%. The country is discussing a potential curb on broken rice exports, which if decided will have ripple effects on the global food supply chain, while on Aug.27 it announced a ban on wheat flour exports with occasional exceptions.
Ukraine’s grain is leaving its ports smoothly with exports steadily ramping up. Ukraine’s grain exports are currently 50% lower y-o-y. Ukrainian wheat sales, albeit improved, are not adequate to support wheat prices, which stand currently below growing costs. On Aug.30, the country's Ministry of Infrastructures announced that approx. 1.5mn tons of grains have been exported so far from the country’s ports. However, next season’s harvest, which has already started to be sown, is undermined by destroyed farmlands and weak domestic prices.
Meanwhile, in the rest EU area, farmers have been grappling with drought, while estimating their summer crop yields to drop significantly. EU’s corn crop is estimated to hit a 15-year low, estimated at 59.3mn tons in 2022/2023 harvest, according to the European Commission’ latest forecast. According to FranceAgriMer, only 53% of the country’s corn crop is in good or very good condition, while according to Agritel’s latest estimate, the country’s 2022/2023 wheat production will reach 33.63mn tons, slumping below the 5-year average. Meanwhile, in Romania farmers have been forced to harvest their corn crops one month earlier on the back of extremely dry conditions. The country expects a 15% lower wheat output y-o-y, approx. 9mn tons, according to the Minister of Agriculture.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
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SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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