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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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