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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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