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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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