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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
Friday, 02 February 24
COAL INDIA ACHIEVES NEARLY 80% OF ITS FY24 PRODUCTION TARGET IN TEN MONTHS - CNBCTV18
For the month of January, the company’s production grew by 9.1% from the same period last year to 78.4 Million Tonnes (MT), from 71.9 MT last ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
INDIA REBUILDS COAL STOCKS TO ENSURE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY - REUTERS
India’s electricity supply is much more comfortable at the start of 2024 than in either 2023 or 2022 as coal production has ramped up and the ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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