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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 08 January 24
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Friday, 05 January 24
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Friday, 05 January 24
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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