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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 01 September 21
KOMIPO TO BUY 1.56 MILLION TONS OF 5600 NAR COAL OF AUSTRALIA OR SOUTH AFRICAN ORIGIN FOR 2022 - 2024
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) has issued an international tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Bituminous Coal to be used a ...
Wednesday, 01 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the summer season is coming to an end, the dry bulk market continues to rally. The confidence that the outstanding freight market performance ha ...
Monday, 30 August 21
68% OF U.S. COAL FLEET RETIREMENTS SINCE 2011 WERE PLANTS FUELED BY BITUMINOUS COAL - EIA
In 2011, the United States had 317.6 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired electric generation capacity. About 88.7 GW of that capacity was retired in the d ...
Friday, 27 August 21
ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT COAL'S MASSIVE RALLY AND NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK - CNBCTV18
Australia’s thermal coal at Newcastle Port, the benchmark for the vast Asian market, has surged over 100 percent this year to trade above $16 ...
Friday, 27 August 21
THE ECONOMICS OF INDONESIA’S DIESEL POWER PLANT TO GAS CONVERSION PLAN ARE PROBLEMATIC - IEEFA
Deploying new small-scale LNG is an uphill battle for PGN
Indonesian gas is currently in a precarious position, where the government needs to ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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