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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 01 September 21
KOMIPO TO BUY 1.56 MILLION TONS OF 5600 NAR COAL OF AUSTRALIA OR SOUTH AFRICAN ORIGIN FOR 2022 - 2024
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) has issued an international tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Bituminous Coal to be used a ...
Wednesday, 01 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the summer season is coming to an end, the dry bulk market continues to rally. The confidence that the outstanding freight market performance ha ...
Monday, 30 August 21
68% OF U.S. COAL FLEET RETIREMENTS SINCE 2011 WERE PLANTS FUELED BY BITUMINOUS COAL - EIA
In 2011, the United States had 317.6 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired electric generation capacity. About 88.7 GW of that capacity was retired in the d ...
Friday, 27 August 21
ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT COAL'S MASSIVE RALLY AND NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK - CNBCTV18
Australia’s thermal coal at Newcastle Port, the benchmark for the vast Asian market, has surged over 100 percent this year to trade above $16 ...
Friday, 27 August 21
THE ECONOMICS OF INDONESIA’S DIESEL POWER PLANT TO GAS CONVERSION PLAN ARE PROBLEMATIC - IEEFA
Deploying new small-scale LNG is an uphill battle for PGN
Indonesian gas is currently in a precarious position, where the government needs to ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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