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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 11 September 21
RECORD CHINESE COAL FUTURES SIGNAL NEED TO BOOST OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s coal prices have climbed to a record high, signaling the need for more production in the short term, even as the government tries to ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
IN 2022, EIA EXPECTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO INCREASE BY 47 MMST TO 648 MMST
U.S. Coal production accordng to EIA's forecast, totals 601 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 66 MMst more than in 2020, EIA's Short-Term ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES THERMAL COAL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON TIGHT SUPPLY
Fitch Ratings has increased all its Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg price assumptions and short- and medium-term Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg price assumptions ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
COAL IS STILL KING; INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE ABOVE $150 FOR FIRST TIME IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference rose dramatically from US$ 127.05 in February 2011, to a peak of US$ 150.03 in September 2021, be ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last August was extremely hot in the dry bulk market with rates rising at levels that we have years to witness. The dry bulk index exceeded the 4,0 ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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