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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 11 September 21
RECORD CHINESE COAL FUTURES SIGNAL NEED TO BOOST OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s coal prices have climbed to a record high, signaling the need for more production in the short term, even as the government tries to ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
IN 2022, EIA EXPECTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO INCREASE BY 47 MMST TO 648 MMST
U.S. Coal production accordng to EIA's forecast, totals 601 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 66 MMst more than in 2020, EIA's Short-Term ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES THERMAL COAL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON TIGHT SUPPLY
Fitch Ratings has increased all its Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg price assumptions and short- and medium-term Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg price assumptions ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
COAL IS STILL KING; INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE ABOVE $150 FOR FIRST TIME IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference rose dramatically from US$ 127.05 in February 2011, to a peak of US$ 150.03 in September 2021, be ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last August was extremely hot in the dry bulk market with rates rising at levels that we have years to witness. The dry bulk index exceeded the 4,0 ...
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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