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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 26 August 21
INDIA IMPORTED 17.06 MLN TONNES OF LPG IN 2020; UP 11.5% Y-O-Y
Global LPG trade remained fairly positive in 2020, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19, and surged strongly in the first half of 2021. ...
Thursday, 26 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
24th of August 2021, the Baltic Dry Index reached 4,201, a YTD high and the highest since May 2010.
Cape 5TC daily average @ 51,472
...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
COAL PRICE RALLY TO PRESSURE CHINESE POWER GENCOS’ MARGINS FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the pressure on Chinese power generation companies’ (gencos) profit from the recent coal price surge to weaken their cr ...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
TIGHT POWER SUPPLY IN CHINA AMID STRONG DEMAND, HIGH COAL PRICES - FITCH RATINGS
China experienced tight power supply in 1H21 on stronger than expected power demand as economic activity continued to recover, Fitch Ratings says i ...
Monday, 23 August 21
CHINESE COAL PRODUCTION RISES 4.9 PCT IN 1ST 7 MONTHS OF 2021 - NBS
Official figures demonstrated that the Chinese raw coal production surged 4.9 percent annually to 2.26 billion tonnes in the January-July period of ...
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
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