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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 26 August 21
INDIA IMPORTED 17.06 MLN TONNES OF LPG IN 2020; UP 11.5% Y-O-Y
Global LPG trade remained fairly positive in 2020, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19, and surged strongly in the first half of 2021. ...
Thursday, 26 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
24th of August 2021, the Baltic Dry Index reached 4,201, a YTD high and the highest since May 2010.
Cape 5TC daily average @ 51,472
...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
COAL PRICE RALLY TO PRESSURE CHINESE POWER GENCOS’ MARGINS FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the pressure on Chinese power generation companies’ (gencos) profit from the recent coal price surge to weaken their cr ...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
TIGHT POWER SUPPLY IN CHINA AMID STRONG DEMAND, HIGH COAL PRICES - FITCH RATINGS
China experienced tight power supply in 1H21 on stronger than expected power demand as economic activity continued to recover, Fitch Ratings says i ...
Monday, 23 August 21
CHINESE COAL PRODUCTION RISES 4.9 PCT IN 1ST 7 MONTHS OF 2021 - NBS
Official figures demonstrated that the Chinese raw coal production surged 4.9 percent annually to 2.26 billion tonnes in the January-July period of ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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