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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 20 August 21
ARE WE LOOKING AT THE NEXT DRY BULK SUPER CYCLE? IS IT EVEN A CYCLE? - BIMCO
Throughout the first half of the year, talk of a new dry bulk super cycle has been on many lips as commodity prices have soared to multi-year highs ...
Friday, 20 August 21
BIMCO'S SHIPPING NUMBER OF THE WEEK: CHINESE IRON ORE IMPORTS FALL TO 14-MONTH LOW IN JULY - PETER SAND
Chinese iron ore imports fell to 88.5 million tonnes in July, the lowest level since May 2020. The fall in July means that accumulated imports are ...
Friday, 20 August 21
SOARING DEMAND FOR THE WORLD’S LEAST-LIKED COMMODITY SEES THERMAL COAL PRICES JUMP 106% THIS YEAR - CNBC
Soaring electricity demand, infrastructure woes and a surge in global gas prices have triggered an extraordinary rally for the world’s least ...
Friday, 20 August 21
CHINA’S IRON ORE IMPORTS CONTRACTED YEAR-ON-YEAR BY 2% IN 2018 AND GREW YEAR-ON-YEAR BY ONLY 1% IN 2019 - COMMODORE RESEARCH
Examining the last ten years of China’s crude steel output and iron ore imports shows that China’s iron ore imports have stayed r ...
Friday, 13 August 21
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORTS TO JAPAN DECLINED BY -26.3% YOY TO 11.9 MLN TONNES IN THE FIRST 7 MONTHS OF 2021; STILL THE SECOND LARGEST SOURCE FOR JAPAN’S COAL IMPORTS IS INDONESIA - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade. Total global loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-yea ...
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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