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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 20 August 21
ARE WE LOOKING AT THE NEXT DRY BULK SUPER CYCLE? IS IT EVEN A CYCLE? - BIMCO
Throughout the first half of the year, talk of a new dry bulk super cycle has been on many lips as commodity prices have soared to multi-year highs ...
Friday, 20 August 21
BIMCO'S SHIPPING NUMBER OF THE WEEK: CHINESE IRON ORE IMPORTS FALL TO 14-MONTH LOW IN JULY - PETER SAND
Chinese iron ore imports fell to 88.5 million tonnes in July, the lowest level since May 2020. The fall in July means that accumulated imports are ...
Friday, 20 August 21
SOARING DEMAND FOR THE WORLD’S LEAST-LIKED COMMODITY SEES THERMAL COAL PRICES JUMP 106% THIS YEAR - CNBC
Soaring electricity demand, infrastructure woes and a surge in global gas prices have triggered an extraordinary rally for the world’s least ...
Friday, 20 August 21
CHINA’S IRON ORE IMPORTS CONTRACTED YEAR-ON-YEAR BY 2% IN 2018 AND GREW YEAR-ON-YEAR BY ONLY 1% IN 2019 - COMMODORE RESEARCH
Examining the last ten years of China’s crude steel output and iron ore imports shows that China’s iron ore imports have stayed r ...
Friday, 13 August 21
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORTS TO JAPAN DECLINED BY -26.3% YOY TO 11.9 MLN TONNES IN THE FIRST 7 MONTHS OF 2021; STILL THE SECOND LARGEST SOURCE FOR JAPAN’S COAL IMPORTS IS INDONESIA - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade. Total global loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-yea ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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