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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of col ...
Tuesday, 21 September 21
CHINESE COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA DROP 98.6% AS RESTRICTIONS BITE - BIMCO
In the first seven months of the year Chinese coal imports from Australia have totalled just 780,000 tonnes as Chinese restrictions on Australian c ...
Tuesday, 21 September 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT RESUMES GROWTH IN AUGUST - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 0.8 percent year on year to 340 million tonnes last month, official data showed.
The growth rate ...
Wednesday, 15 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the oil price sell off during most of August, partly triggered by oil demand fears amid the delta COVID variant, oil prices have resumed ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
CIL STEPS UP SUPPLY COAL TO POWER SECTOR; PER-DAY AVERAGE 20 PC HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR - PTI
State-owned CIL on Friday said it has stepped up the supply of coal to the power sector in the first eight days of the current month, with an avera ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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