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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of col ...
Tuesday, 21 September 21
CHINESE COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA DROP 98.6% AS RESTRICTIONS BITE - BIMCO
In the first seven months of the year Chinese coal imports from Australia have totalled just 780,000 tonnes as Chinese restrictions on Australian c ...
Tuesday, 21 September 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT RESUMES GROWTH IN AUGUST - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 0.8 percent year on year to 340 million tonnes last month, official data showed.
The growth rate ...
Wednesday, 15 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the oil price sell off during most of August, partly triggered by oil demand fears amid the delta COVID variant, oil prices have resumed ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
CIL STEPS UP SUPPLY COAL TO POWER SECTOR; PER-DAY AVERAGE 20 PC HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR - PTI
State-owned CIL on Friday said it has stepped up the supply of coal to the power sector in the first eight days of the current month, with an avera ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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