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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 27 September 21
CHINESE COAL FIRMS MEET TO ADDRESS WINTER SUPPLY CHALLENGES - CNBC
Major Chinese coal producers are trying to resolve supply shortages and curb price rises as the country’s winter consumption peak approaches, ...
Saturday, 25 September 21
HIGH STAKES FOR ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK’S AMBITIOUS COAL POWER RETIREMENT PLAN - IEEFA
Implementation challenges could block funding for other equally important high impact clean energy funding strategies
In the lead up ...
Thursday, 23 September 21
LONGER COAL CONTRACTS MAY REIN IN PRICES - ECNS
In China’s coal sector that has been marred recently by price surges, regional authorities and related enterprises should ensure the fuel con ...
Thursday, 23 September 21
BALTIC INDEX HITS 12-YEAR PEAK ON FIRMER VESSELS RATES - REUTERS
The Baltic Exchange’s main dry bulk sea freight index rose for a fourth straight session on Wednesday to a 12-year high, buoyed by higher rat ...
Thursday, 23 September 21
RECORD-HIGH GAS PRICES AFFECT MANY EUROPEAN CORPORATE SECTORS - FITCH RATINGS
Record-high natural gas prices are putting pressure on supply chains of many European corporate sectors, including non-integrated energy suppliers, ...
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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