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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 27 September 21
CHINESE COAL FIRMS MEET TO ADDRESS WINTER SUPPLY CHALLENGES - CNBC
Major Chinese coal producers are trying to resolve supply shortages and curb price rises as the country’s winter consumption peak approaches, ...
Saturday, 25 September 21
HIGH STAKES FOR ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK’S AMBITIOUS COAL POWER RETIREMENT PLAN - IEEFA
Implementation challenges could block funding for other equally important high impact clean energy funding strategies
In the lead up ...
Thursday, 23 September 21
LONGER COAL CONTRACTS MAY REIN IN PRICES - ECNS
In China’s coal sector that has been marred recently by price surges, regional authorities and related enterprises should ensure the fuel con ...
Thursday, 23 September 21
BALTIC INDEX HITS 12-YEAR PEAK ON FIRMER VESSELS RATES - REUTERS
The Baltic Exchange’s main dry bulk sea freight index rose for a fourth straight session on Wednesday to a 12-year high, buoyed by higher rat ...
Thursday, 23 September 21
RECORD-HIGH GAS PRICES AFFECT MANY EUROPEAN CORPORATE SECTORS - FITCH RATINGS
Record-high natural gas prices are putting pressure on supply chains of many European corporate sectors, including non-integrated energy suppliers, ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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