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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 05 October 21
CAPESIZE MARKET WAS IN A STEEP CLIMB FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
The Capesize market was in a steep climb for most of this week as it reached a pinnacle of $74,786 Wednesday before stalling, regather ...
Wednesday, 29 September 21
THE WRITING IS ON THE WALL: AUSTRALIA’S COAL ERA IS OVER - YAHOO!FINANCE
As the fringe of Australian politics strives to pump up the coal industry, facts show that coal production has started its long run decline.
&n ...
Wednesday, 29 September 21
SURGING COAL PRICES SPLIT ASIAN BUYERS INTO RICH AND POOR - REUTERS
As seaborne coal in Asia trades at, or near, record highs, there are early signs of demand destruction, especially among price-sensitive buyers suc ...
Wednesday, 29 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Tanker Asset values have surprised to the upside, despite the downward pressure on the freight market. Tanker rates have been hovering close to the ...
Tuesday, 28 September 21
THE MAIDEN EDITION OF DIVE TECHNOLOGY SUMMIT 2021 CONCLUDES SUCCESSFULLY
Press Release: DIVE TECHNOLOGY SUMMIT 2021, a one-day conference on the recent technological advancements in the Industrial Diving industry conclud ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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