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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 09 October 21
CHINA POWER CUTS: COAL MINERS ORDERED TO BOOST OUTPUT, SAY REPORTS - BBC
Beijing has reportedly ordered China’s coal mines to boost output as an energy shortage across the country has seen millions of homes and bus ...
Friday, 08 October 21
SEPTEMBER CRUDE OIL TANKER DEMOLISHING HITS 39-MONTHS HIGH AT 1.9M DWT - PETER SAND
Has the lid finally come off for crude oil tanker demolition in 2021? If judged by the 1.9m DWT of capacity that was removed in September, the answ ...
Friday, 08 October 21
COAL SHORTAGE MAY LEAD TO RISE IN STEEL PRICES IN COMING MONTHS: JSPL MD - PTI
Steel prices are expected to increase in the coming months as companies are buying coal at three times the rates a month ago, said a top industry e ...
Wednesday, 06 October 21
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE: ANOTHER MONTH, ANOTHER RALLY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference in a steep climb for most of second and third quarters of 2021 as it reached a pinnacle of $161.63 Oc ...
Wednesday, 06 October 21
EUROPEAN COAL FUTURES CLIMB TO 13-YEAR PEAK - REUTERS
European coal futures rose to a 13-year high and physical thermal coal prices were at record highs as rallying gas prices and strong Asian demand f ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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