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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 13 October 21
FBX INDEX: THE IMPOSSIBILITY OF SHORT-TERM FORECASTING - LARS JENSEN
Will freight rates on Asia-Europe or the Transpacific reach 40.000 USD/FFE in the run-up prior to Chinese New Year 2022? Or will they start droppin ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
CHINA FLOODS: COAL PRICE HITS FRESH HIGH AS MINES SHUT - BBC
The price of coal used in China’s power plants has surged to a new record high as another of the country’s key mining regions is hit by ...
Tuesday, 12 October 21
BUMA SIGNS CONDITIONAL AGREEMENT FOR AUSTRALIAN ASSET ACQUISITION
PT Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, through its newly incorporated Australian subsidiary, BUMA International Pty ...
Tuesday, 12 October 21
INDONESIA'S COAL-BASED POWER PLANTS ARE SUBJECT TO CARBON TAX NEXT YEAR, ELECTRICITY COSTS COULD RISE! - CNBC
The Indonesian government is planning plans to implement a carbon tax of IDR 30 per kilogram (kg) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) or equivalent ...
Monday, 11 October 21
COAL ABANDONMENT IN POWER GENERATION PROMOTED GAS DEMAND GROWTH IN EUROPE - TOP MANAGER: TASS
Accelerated abandonment of coal in power generation and the overall recovery of economic activity facilitated gas demand growth in Europe and led t ...
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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