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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 13 October 21
FBX INDEX: THE IMPOSSIBILITY OF SHORT-TERM FORECASTING - LARS JENSEN
Will freight rates on Asia-Europe or the Transpacific reach 40.000 USD/FFE in the run-up prior to Chinese New Year 2022? Or will they start droppin ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
CHINA FLOODS: COAL PRICE HITS FRESH HIGH AS MINES SHUT - BBC
The price of coal used in China’s power plants has surged to a new record high as another of the country’s key mining regions is hit by ...
Tuesday, 12 October 21
BUMA SIGNS CONDITIONAL AGREEMENT FOR AUSTRALIAN ASSET ACQUISITION
PT Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, through its newly incorporated Australian subsidiary, BUMA International Pty ...
Tuesday, 12 October 21
INDONESIA'S COAL-BASED POWER PLANTS ARE SUBJECT TO CARBON TAX NEXT YEAR, ELECTRICITY COSTS COULD RISE! - CNBC
The Indonesian government is planning plans to implement a carbon tax of IDR 30 per kilogram (kg) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) or equivalent ...
Monday, 11 October 21
COAL ABANDONMENT IN POWER GENERATION PROMOTED GAS DEMAND GROWTH IN EUROPE - TOP MANAGER: TASS
Accelerated abandonment of coal in power generation and the overall recovery of economic activity facilitated gas demand growth in Europe and led t ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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