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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 14 October 21
SPIKING COAL PRICES: DON’T BLAME THE ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Volatility highlights urgency for renewables-based energy solutions
“Energy crisis.” The phrase evokes nearly-forgotten ...
Thursday, 14 October 21
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 588 MMST IN 2021, UP 53 MMST YOY
U.S. coal production in EIA's forecasts totals 588 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 53 MMst more than in 2020.
According ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
COAL PRICES ARE ROARING BACK AMID A GLOBAL ENERGY CRUNCH - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Soaring coal prices have placed Australia’s mining and energy exports on track to reach a record $349 billion this year evenas the value of t ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
CHINA ISN'T THE ONLY HUGE ASIAN ECONOMY WITH A COAL SHORTAGE NOW - CNBC
China is not the only Asian giant grappling with an energy crunch — India is also teetering on the edge of a power crisis.
Mos ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following up on our insight on May 2021, where we discussed about the Capesize market outlook for the second half of the year, we are pleased to se ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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