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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 14 October 21
SPIKING COAL PRICES: DON’T BLAME THE ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Volatility highlights urgency for renewables-based energy solutions
“Energy crisis.” The phrase evokes nearly-forgotten ...
Thursday, 14 October 21
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 588 MMST IN 2021, UP 53 MMST YOY
U.S. coal production in EIA's forecasts totals 588 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 53 MMst more than in 2020.
According ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
COAL PRICES ARE ROARING BACK AMID A GLOBAL ENERGY CRUNCH - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Soaring coal prices have placed Australia’s mining and energy exports on track to reach a record $349 billion this year evenas the value of t ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
CHINA ISN'T THE ONLY HUGE ASIAN ECONOMY WITH A COAL SHORTAGE NOW - CNBC
China is not the only Asian giant grappling with an energy crunch — India is also teetering on the edge of a power crisis.
Mos ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following up on our insight on May 2021, where we discussed about the Capesize market outlook for the second half of the year, we are pleased to se ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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