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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 16 October 21
COAL IS 'KING' AS GAS PRICES SOAR, TOTAL CEO SAYS - AND IT’S BACKFIRING ON CLEANER ENERGY GOALS - CNBC
Surging natural gas prices have led to a jump in coal use, with plants in Europe and Asia firing back up as temperatures decline and the world grap ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
VIETNAM'S COAL-FIRED POWER MAY DOUBLE BY 2030 UNDER DRAFT ENERGY PLAN - REUTERS
Vietnam may double the amount of coal-fired electric generation it installs by 2030 under a draft power development plan submitted to the prime min ...
Friday, 15 October 21
AUSTRALIA'S WHITEHAVEN EXPECTS TO BE DEBT-FREE NEXT YEAR AS COAL PRICES SOAR - REUTERS
Australia’s Whitehaven Coal WHC.AX said on Thursday it expects to be debt-free by early 2022, as thermal coal prices surge to record highs on ...
Friday, 15 October 21
WINTER CHILL KEEPS CHINA'S COAL PRICES HIGH, POWER CRUNCH STOKES INFLATION - REUTERS
China coal prices held near record highs on Thursday as cold weather swept into the country’s north and power plants stocked up on the fuel t ...
Friday, 15 October 21
GLOBAL STEEL DEMAND GROWTH DOWNGRADED FOR 2021 DUE TO CHINA - WORLD STEEL ASSOCIATION
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released an update of its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that ste ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
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