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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 16 October 21
COAL IS 'KING' AS GAS PRICES SOAR, TOTAL CEO SAYS - AND IT’S BACKFIRING ON CLEANER ENERGY GOALS - CNBC
Surging natural gas prices have led to a jump in coal use, with plants in Europe and Asia firing back up as temperatures decline and the world grap ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
VIETNAM'S COAL-FIRED POWER MAY DOUBLE BY 2030 UNDER DRAFT ENERGY PLAN - REUTERS
Vietnam may double the amount of coal-fired electric generation it installs by 2030 under a draft power development plan submitted to the prime min ...
Friday, 15 October 21
AUSTRALIA'S WHITEHAVEN EXPECTS TO BE DEBT-FREE NEXT YEAR AS COAL PRICES SOAR - REUTERS
Australia’s Whitehaven Coal WHC.AX said on Thursday it expects to be debt-free by early 2022, as thermal coal prices surge to record highs on ...
Friday, 15 October 21
WINTER CHILL KEEPS CHINA'S COAL PRICES HIGH, POWER CRUNCH STOKES INFLATION - REUTERS
China coal prices held near record highs on Thursday as cold weather swept into the country’s north and power plants stocked up on the fuel t ...
Friday, 15 October 21
GLOBAL STEEL DEMAND GROWTH DOWNGRADED FOR 2021 DUE TO CHINA - WORLD STEEL ASSOCIATION
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released an update of its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that ste ...
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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