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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 20 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
IMO 2020, Ballast Water Treatment regulations, Green Recycling, GHG emissions, EEXI, CII, ETS, Fit for 55, Carbon price/levy, the Poseidon Principl ...
Tuesday, 19 October 21
SPONGE IRON SECTOR MIGHT REPORT NEGATIVE GROWTH DUE TO COAL CRISIS: SIMA - PTI
The domestic sponge iron industry might report a negative growth in the ongoing December quarter “if the shortage of coal is allowed to conti ...
Tuesday, 19 October 21
COAL INDIA, THE FALL GUY FOR POWER CRISIS - INDIA EXPRESS
The post-Covid economic recovery has led to a major increase in the demand for power, both in India and globally. In India, coal-based power plants ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
SOLAR INSTALLATION SURGE PUTS INDIA ON TRACK TO CAP COAL-FIRED POWER AS EARLY AS 2024 - IEEFA
Recent increase in solar power installations could push coal to peak sooner than expected
If India keeps installing solar capacity a ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
DESPITE HIGHER COAL PRICES, U.S. COAL RECOVERY LOOKS WEAK BY MOST MEASURES - IEEFA
U.S. coal sector is locked into a long-term sectoral decline
Coal prices have surged to the highest level in years in the U.S., and have soare ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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