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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 20 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
IMO 2020, Ballast Water Treatment regulations, Green Recycling, GHG emissions, EEXI, CII, ETS, Fit for 55, Carbon price/levy, the Poseidon Principl ...
Tuesday, 19 October 21
SPONGE IRON SECTOR MIGHT REPORT NEGATIVE GROWTH DUE TO COAL CRISIS: SIMA - PTI
The domestic sponge iron industry might report a negative growth in the ongoing December quarter “if the shortage of coal is allowed to conti ...
Tuesday, 19 October 21
COAL INDIA, THE FALL GUY FOR POWER CRISIS - INDIA EXPRESS
The post-Covid economic recovery has led to a major increase in the demand for power, both in India and globally. In India, coal-based power plants ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
SOLAR INSTALLATION SURGE PUTS INDIA ON TRACK TO CAP COAL-FIRED POWER AS EARLY AS 2024 - IEEFA
Recent increase in solar power installations could push coal to peak sooner than expected
If India keeps installing solar capacity a ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
DESPITE HIGHER COAL PRICES, U.S. COAL RECOVERY LOOKS WEAK BY MOST MEASURES - IEEFA
U.S. coal sector is locked into a long-term sectoral decline
Coal prices have surged to the highest level in years in the U.S., and have soare ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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