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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 October 21
HARD COAL REMAINS AN IMPORTANT FACTOR FOR SECURITY OF SUPPLY - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
- Hard coal remains an important factor for security of supply
- Increase of around 35% in hard-coal-fired power generation in the first three ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S COAL SHORTAGE TO EASE IN COMING MONTHS, INDUSTRY BODY SAYS - REUTERS
China’s coal shortage will likely ease in coming months, with domestic production and imports already showing signs of picking up, a coal ind ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S RAW COAL OUTPUT DROPS IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output dropped 0.9 percent year on year to 330 million tonnes last month, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
OVER-RELIANCE ON COAL IN OUR POWER MIX HURTING INDIA - LIVEMINT
In spite of the renewables push, coal still accounts for about 50% of India’s installed power capacity. That means a simultaneous demand and ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA COAL HITS RECORD HIGH AMID TIGHT SUPPLIES - REUTERS
China coal prices hit a record high on Tuesday buoyed by a widening power crunch and cold weather despite Beijing’s efforts to bolster supply ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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