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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 October 21
HARD COAL REMAINS AN IMPORTANT FACTOR FOR SECURITY OF SUPPLY - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
- Hard coal remains an important factor for security of supply
- Increase of around 35% in hard-coal-fired power generation in the first three ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S COAL SHORTAGE TO EASE IN COMING MONTHS, INDUSTRY BODY SAYS - REUTERS
China’s coal shortage will likely ease in coming months, with domestic production and imports already showing signs of picking up, a coal ind ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S RAW COAL OUTPUT DROPS IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output dropped 0.9 percent year on year to 330 million tonnes last month, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
OVER-RELIANCE ON COAL IN OUR POWER MIX HURTING INDIA - LIVEMINT
In spite of the renewables push, coal still accounts for about 50% of India’s installed power capacity. That means a simultaneous demand and ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA COAL HITS RECORD HIGH AMID TIGHT SUPPLIES - REUTERS
China coal prices hit a record high on Tuesday buoyed by a widening power crunch and cold weather despite Beijing’s efforts to bolster supply ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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