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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 25 October 21
CHINA VOWS TO SEVERELY PUNISH MARKET VIOLATIONS AMID LOW COAL FUTURES PRICES - GLOBAL TIMES
Domestic coal futures had plunged for three consecutive trading days after the government vowed to crack down on soaring prices, and China’s ...
Monday, 25 October 21
FARMERS MAY JOIN THE COAL COMMODITY MARKET TO REDUCE RISKS - GLOBAL TIMES
A recent trip to by the Global Times to East China’s Shandong Province to get a glimpse of China’s coal supply chain revealed a surpris ...
Monday, 25 October 21
CHINA COAL PRICES MARK WORST WEEK SINCE MAY ON GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures plunged on Friday and turned in their worst week in five months, following Beijing’s strongest interventio ...
Friday, 22 October 21
THE BIG PICTURE: ENERGY MARKETS - BREAK WAVE ADVISORS
The shipping markets have been pulled further into wild markets of coal and other energy sources. Given how nebulous this sector is, it’s alw ...
Friday, 22 October 21
CHINA WANTS TO COOL COAL PRICES. SIMILAR MOVES FOR METALS, CRUDE FAILED - REUTERS
China’s latest attempt to lower runaway commodity prices, this time for thermal coal, is likely to follow a familiar pattern of initial succe ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
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