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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 25 October 21
CHINA VOWS TO SEVERELY PUNISH MARKET VIOLATIONS AMID LOW COAL FUTURES PRICES - GLOBAL TIMES
Domestic coal futures had plunged for three consecutive trading days after the government vowed to crack down on soaring prices, and China’s ...
Monday, 25 October 21
FARMERS MAY JOIN THE COAL COMMODITY MARKET TO REDUCE RISKS - GLOBAL TIMES
A recent trip to by the Global Times to East China’s Shandong Province to get a glimpse of China’s coal supply chain revealed a surpris ...
Monday, 25 October 21
CHINA COAL PRICES MARK WORST WEEK SINCE MAY ON GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures plunged on Friday and turned in their worst week in five months, following Beijing’s strongest interventio ...
Friday, 22 October 21
THE BIG PICTURE: ENERGY MARKETS - BREAK WAVE ADVISORS
The shipping markets have been pulled further into wild markets of coal and other energy sources. Given how nebulous this sector is, it’s alw ...
Friday, 22 October 21
CHINA WANTS TO COOL COAL PRICES. SIMILAR MOVES FOR METALS, CRUDE FAILED - REUTERS
China’s latest attempt to lower runaway commodity prices, this time for thermal coal, is likely to follow a familiar pattern of initial succe ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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