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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
Friday, 02 February 24
COAL INDIA ACHIEVES NEARLY 80% OF ITS FY24 PRODUCTION TARGET IN TEN MONTHS - CNBCTV18
For the month of January, the company’s production grew by 9.1% from the same period last year to 78.4 Million Tonnes (MT), from 71.9 MT last ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
INDIA REBUILDS COAL STOCKS TO ENSURE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY - REUTERS
India’s electricity supply is much more comfortable at the start of 2024 than in either 2023 or 2022 as coal production has ramped up and the ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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