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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
Friday, 02 February 24
COAL INDIA ACHIEVES NEARLY 80% OF ITS FY24 PRODUCTION TARGET IN TEN MONTHS - CNBCTV18
For the month of January, the company’s production grew by 9.1% from the same period last year to 78.4 Million Tonnes (MT), from 71.9 MT last ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
INDIA REBUILDS COAL STOCKS TO ENSURE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY - REUTERS
India’s electricity supply is much more comfortable at the start of 2024 than in either 2023 or 2022 as coal production has ramped up and the ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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