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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
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Friday, 23 February 24
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Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
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Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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