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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
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Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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