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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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