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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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