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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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