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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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