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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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