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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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