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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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