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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 October 21
ENERGY CRISIS SHOWS COAL IS AN EXPENSIVE AND UNRELIABLE SOURCE OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION - IEEFA
Any knee-jerk reaction that urges more investment in coal completely misses the point
India is teetering on the brink of joining a growing glo ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
CHINA TO INVESTIGATE ENERGY INDEX PROVIDERS IN BID TO TAME COAL PRICES - REUTERS
China said on Monday it will investigate energy price index providers as it urged coal industry participants to “strictly” meet contrac ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
THERE IS PLENTY OF COAL AND GAS IN THE WORLD BUT A VOLATILE MARKET IS NOBODY'S FRIEND - IEEFA
Gas will be winding its way out of the energy system
Gas prices are continuing to surge around the world. The cost of gas is at unpr ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
AUSTRALIA EXPORTED 51.6 MLN TONNES OF COAL TO INDIA IN FIRST 10 MONTHS, 19% OF ALL AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS; CHINA WAS THE DESTINATION FOR JUST 0.7% - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade. In 2021 things started pretty badly, but we are seeing increasing signs of ...
Monday, 25 October 21
A QUESTION OF POSSESSION - THE BALTIC EXCHANGE
Possession and tangibility are closely related concepts long established under English law. Yet a change to these concepts is around the corner. Th ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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