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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 30 October 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICES SEE BIGGEST WEEKLY FALL IN MORE THAN 5 YEARS - REUTERS
China’s coal futures prices saw their biggest fall in more than five years after the powerful state planner said there is still room to adjus ...
Saturday, 30 October 21
G-20 LEADERS PREPARE STATEMENT TO STOP FUNDING FOREIGN COAL PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Leaders of the Group of 20 wealthy economies are preparing to pledge to stop funding foreign coal-fired plants, but are still wrangling over climat ...
Friday, 29 October 21
APAC THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO REMAIN TIGHT AS WINTER LOOMS - FITCH RATINGS
APAC thermal coal prices have surged, hitting historically high levels. The benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal reached USD228/tonne in mid ...
Thursday, 28 October 21
CANADA BAN ON SHIPPING COAL WOULD EQUAL SCRAPPING AS MANY AS 3 MILLION CARS - IEEFA
Canada ban on shipping coal would equal scrapping as many as 3 million cars
Change in Canadian policy could have major implications ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
CHINA'S COAL-RICH SHANXI BEEFS UP COAL PRODUCTION - XINHUA
Major coal producers in north China’s Shanxi Province, a leading coal-producing region of the country, have beefed up production to ensure en ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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