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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 30 October 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICES SEE BIGGEST WEEKLY FALL IN MORE THAN 5 YEARS - REUTERS
China’s coal futures prices saw their biggest fall in more than five years after the powerful state planner said there is still room to adjus ...
Saturday, 30 October 21
G-20 LEADERS PREPARE STATEMENT TO STOP FUNDING FOREIGN COAL PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Leaders of the Group of 20 wealthy economies are preparing to pledge to stop funding foreign coal-fired plants, but are still wrangling over climat ...
Friday, 29 October 21
APAC THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO REMAIN TIGHT AS WINTER LOOMS - FITCH RATINGS
APAC thermal coal prices have surged, hitting historically high levels. The benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal reached USD228/tonne in mid ...
Thursday, 28 October 21
CANADA BAN ON SHIPPING COAL WOULD EQUAL SCRAPPING AS MANY AS 3 MILLION CARS - IEEFA
Canada ban on shipping coal would equal scrapping as many as 3 million cars
Change in Canadian policy could have major implications ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
CHINA'S COAL-RICH SHANXI BEEFS UP COAL PRODUCTION - XINHUA
Major coal producers in north China’s Shanxi Province, a leading coal-producing region of the country, have beefed up production to ensure en ...
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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