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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 03 November 21
CHINA TO LAUNCH NEW DATA MONITORING SYSTEM, TARGETING COAL MARKET SPECULATION, HOARDING - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner announced on Sunday a new data system for supervising the implementation of medium- and long-term contracts of c ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
CHINA’S STATE PLANNER SAYS COAL SUPPLY IMPROVING, PRICES STABILISING - REUTERS
China’s coal supply situation has seen significant improvement with joint efforts from coal producers, logistics and downstream users, while ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
HIGHER COKING COAL PRICES TO PARE PROFITABILITY OF STEELMAKERS IN SECOND HALF OF FY22 - CRISIL RATINGS
The operating margin of primary steelmakers will reduce by a third to 24-26% in the second half of this fiscal versus the first half as input cost ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stati ...
Monday, 01 November 21
COAL PRICES HAVE FURTHER ROOM TO DROP: TOP ECONOMIC PLANNER - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner said coal prices have further room to drop on Friday, as the most traded coal futures dropped to below 1,000 yua ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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