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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 03 November 21
CHINA TO LAUNCH NEW DATA MONITORING SYSTEM, TARGETING COAL MARKET SPECULATION, HOARDING - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner announced on Sunday a new data system for supervising the implementation of medium- and long-term contracts of c ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
CHINA’S STATE PLANNER SAYS COAL SUPPLY IMPROVING, PRICES STABILISING - REUTERS
China’s coal supply situation has seen significant improvement with joint efforts from coal producers, logistics and downstream users, while ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
HIGHER COKING COAL PRICES TO PARE PROFITABILITY OF STEELMAKERS IN SECOND HALF OF FY22 - CRISIL RATINGS
The operating margin of primary steelmakers will reduce by a third to 24-26% in the second half of this fiscal versus the first half as input cost ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stati ...
Monday, 01 November 21
COAL PRICES HAVE FURTHER ROOM TO DROP: TOP ECONOMIC PLANNER - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner said coal prices have further room to drop on Friday, as the most traded coal futures dropped to below 1,000 yua ...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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