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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 09 November 21
ASIA-PACIFIC IS HOME TO SOME OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST CARBON-EMITTERS - 2 CHARTS SHOW ITS RELIANCE ON COAL - CNBC
Asia-Pacific is home to some of the world’s largest carbon emitters — and experts say much of global efforts to fight climate change de ...
Tuesday, 09 November 21
CHINA DAILY COAL OUTPUT HITS MULTI-YEAR PEAK, PRICES EXPECTED TO FALL - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output hit 11.93 million tonnes last week, a multi-year high as more capacity returned to operation, the state planner sai ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
CHINA'S COAL MARKET SEES SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS: NDRC - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner has declared initial success in its efforts to ensure coal supply and stabilize prices, saying that daily coal o ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
CHINA THERMAL COAL PRICES RISE AFTER FALLING FOR 10 DAYS - REUTERS
China thermal coal futures rebounded on Wednesday after falling for 10 days on an expected jump in fuel demand to meet heating needs amid forecasts ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
FASTER DECARBONISATION: BACK TO BASICS FOR THE MINING INDUSTRY? - WOOD MACKENZIE
To the uninitiated, rugby is a technical and complicated game. As young schoolboys it was all a wee bit confusing and we invariably ended up on the ...
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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