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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 09 November 21
ASIA-PACIFIC IS HOME TO SOME OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST CARBON-EMITTERS - 2 CHARTS SHOW ITS RELIANCE ON COAL - CNBC
Asia-Pacific is home to some of the world’s largest carbon emitters — and experts say much of global efforts to fight climate change de ...
Tuesday, 09 November 21
CHINA DAILY COAL OUTPUT HITS MULTI-YEAR PEAK, PRICES EXPECTED TO FALL - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output hit 11.93 million tonnes last week, a multi-year high as more capacity returned to operation, the state planner sai ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
CHINA'S COAL MARKET SEES SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS: NDRC - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner has declared initial success in its efforts to ensure coal supply and stabilize prices, saying that daily coal o ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
CHINA THERMAL COAL PRICES RISE AFTER FALLING FOR 10 DAYS - REUTERS
China thermal coal futures rebounded on Wednesday after falling for 10 days on an expected jump in fuel demand to meet heating needs amid forecasts ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
FASTER DECARBONISATION: BACK TO BASICS FOR THE MINING INDUSTRY? - WOOD MACKENZIE
To the uninitiated, rugby is a technical and complicated game. As young schoolboys it was all a wee bit confusing and we invariably ended up on the ...
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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